How Russia’s summer offensive is reshaping the war in Ukraine
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Russia captured a further 200 sq km of Ukrainian territory in July, according to an analysis by Agence France Press. In addition to airstrikes on cities far from the frontlines, Russian ground troops are mounting intense attacks, particularly in Donetsk province on the central part of the eastern front.
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One line of attack has been against Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut, a city Russia captured last summer with a great loss of lives and equipment. Chasiv Yar is now largely in ruins but remains a key staging post for Ukrainian troops, so the move seems designed partly to relieve pressure on Bakhmut. The topography of the area means Russia has been waging its bloody offensive uphill.
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But if Russia can capture Chasiv Yar, the consequences could go further. Beyond what remains of the town a plateau stretches across fields to the outskirts of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – the only two substantial population centres in Donetsk oblast that remain in Ukrainian control.
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Similarly, the Russians have opened an audacious salient toward Pokrovsk, a little further south-west. Pokrovsk is the railhead for reinforcements and supplies coming from central Ukraine, and the junction for the main roads to the city of Donetsk and Sloviansk.
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Taken together, the Russian lines of attack suggest an attempt to capture the part of Donetsk oblast that remains in Ukrainian control. The region is one of four Russia declared in September 2022 that it had annexed.
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The one very significant exception to this focus on Donetsk is a new front opened around Vovchansk, in the north, in an area unconnected to other Russian-held territory in Ukraine. Analysts initially thought the objective was to threaten Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city, in an attempt to draw troops and air defence away from the Donetsk front and Kyiv.
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The Vovchansk front was almost certainly also designed to exploit the asymmetry of the war. Russia has said it intends to create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks. A relatively short push into Ukrainian territory can also put Russian rockets in range of Kharkiv.