Russia’s military parades have become a sign of weakness

ON MAY 9th Russia will mark 80 years since Nazi Germany’s defeat in the second world war. President Vladimir Putin has invited dozens of foreign leaders to Moscow for the annual military parade, including China’s Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Victory Day, long a patriotic staple in Russia, has become central to Mr Putin’s efforts to shore up his regime and justify his war in Ukraine, which he has mendaciously framed as a fight against “a neo-Nazi regime”. Russia called for a ceasefire from May 8th to 11th, a move Ukraine dismissed as an attempt to calm jittery guests. The parades are meant to signal might—with rows of tanks, missiles and saluting troops.

Yet recent parades have underwhelmed. The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an independent group specialising in open-source intelligence (OSINT) in Russia, has tracked parades in 57 cities over the past four years. Since the invasion of Ukraine, much of Russia’s hardware has been sent to the front—and perhaps destroyed there. The number of military vehicles on show fell from around 2,000 before the war to 1,275 in 2022, and just over 900 in both 2023 and 2024 (see chart 1). Tanks are an even rarer sight: 108 were paraded in 2021 but only 39 were spotted last year. Moscow’s display featured just one—a T-34 from the second world war (pictured).

Instead, the Kremlin appears to be padding out the events with lighter, more abundant kit. That has made the parades a show less of strength than of scarcity. For example, between 2023 and 2024 the number of light-armoured vehicles, such as Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles (MRAPs) and Infantry Mobility Vehicles (IMVs), increased. For artillery, CIT recorded declines in self-propelled howitzers and most air-defence units (see chart 2). But towed artillery, which is generally lighter and cheaper, became more common.

Russia’s losses in Ukraine have been steep. Oryx, a Dutch OSINT project, has documented the destruction, damage or capture of some 21,550 Russian weapons systems as of May 1st. That includes around 4,000 tanks, which are expensive and hard to produce. Those figures would suggest that Russia has blown through the majority of its pre-war stockpile. Oryx has recorded fewer losses on Ukraine’s side: 8,805 items, including 1,167 tanks (see chart 3).

Faced with shortages, Russia has cranked up production. Factories are churning out munitions. Output of high-precision 9M723 ballistic missiles rose from around 250 in 2023 to more than 700 in 2024, according to RUSI, a think-tank. Tank plants are also busy, albeit mainly refurbishing old Soviet models—a cheaper way to bolster firepower than building modern ones. (RUSI estimates that just 10-15% of the 2,000 tanks delivered every year are new.) Some European officials worry the extra production is not just to bolster Russian forces in Ukraine but also to prepare for another war deeper into Europe.

Keen to impress, the Kremlin has promised that this year’s parade will be the grandest yet. Whatever the state of Russia’s arsenal, Mr Putin will want to put on a show.■