Trouble at home threatens Friedrich Merz’s global ambitions

“SO HELP me God,” said Friedrich Merz, Germany’s new chancellor, his right hand aloft as he solemnly recited the oath of office in the Bundestag on May 6th. Earlier in the day Mr Merz, leader of the Christian Democrats (cdu), might well have hoped for a spot of divine intervention, after the Bundestag delivered him an unprecedented rebuke. In what was expected to have been a routine step enabling his ascent to the chancellery, mps instead left him six votes short of the absolute majority he needed. At least 18 of the 328 lawmakers in Mr Merz’s conservative bloc and their junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats (spd), had balked at backing the man who won Germany’s election in February. The ballot was secret; the culprits may never be known. But whoever was to blame, it was a devilish start for a man who had pledged to bring an end to the “chaos” he said marked the tenure of the spd-led government he was replacing.

A second vote that day, organised after a hasty change to parliamentary procedures, got Mr Merz over the line. The new chancellor now hopes that a flurry of activity will erase the Bundestag bungle from memory. On his first full day in office he embarked on a whistle-stop tour of France and Poland, in a display of comity with Germany’s most important neighbours. Trips to Brussels, Kyiv and doubtless other places will follow fast. Mr Merz’s commitment to restoring a long-absent German voice to European and international debates is not in doubt, and he has structured his government to centralise foreign policy in the chancellery (Johann Wadephul, the new foreign minister, is a close party ally). The question is whether his international ambitions may run aground on the shores of domestic politics.

At least initially, the focus will be on Europe. “Merz is convinced that the only guarantee for a free, wealthy and peaceful Europe is for it to build significantly more unity,” says Roland Koch, a cdu grandee and longtime ally. Even before taking office Mr Merz organised a constitutional change to boost defence and infrastructure spending. Hopes run accordingly high in many eu capitals. Emmanuel Macron in particular longs to find the partner in Berlin he missed under Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor; the French president has asked his ministers to study the German coalition agreement to find areas of potential co-operation. When Mr Merz dropped in to the Elysée on May 7th—his first visit as chancellor, but far from his first meeting with Mr Macron—the pair hugged like old pals. They promised joint endeavours on defence, energy and innovation.

As for Poland, Mr Merz hopes to restore a relationship that also atrophied under Mr Scholz. He vests his hopes in the fact that the cdu and Civic Platform, the party of Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, both sit in the European People’s Party, the centre-right grouping that Mr Merz regards as a crucial vector of power in Europe. There are also ambitions with Britain: the chancellor plans to tap into the Labour government’s hope for a post-Brexit reset in relations with Europe. Mr Merz has said that Germany, France, Poland and Britain should form a European “contact group” to back Ukraine—though in Paris he added pointedly that “we still need the Americans”. (He is expected to speak to Donald Trump soon.)

None of these relationships is friction-free. For example, France and Poland have been sceptical about an eu trade deal with Mercosur, the Latin American trade bloc, which Germany backs. Nor do old pathologies disappear with a new government: concerns in Germany over France’s excessive public debt run as deep as ever. In Poland, there are huge worries over Mr Merz’s pledges to turn back irregular migrants at the countries’ shared border. Hours before Mr Merz touched down in Warsaw Alexander Dobrindt, his new interior minister, announced yet-tougher border controls. Standing next to Mr Merz later, Mr Tusk wasted no time in making his displeasure clear. (So, separately, did the Swiss.)

Still, these look like the usual spats that pockmark bilateral relations in the EU. It is not news that France and Germany, with its export-dependent economy, have different instincts on trade, and on irregular migration Mr Merz is swimming with the European tide. For most of Germany’s eu partners, the simple fact that Mr Merz is not Mr Scholz is cause for cheer.

It is at home that dangers skulk. One early test will be budgets for both this year (belatedly) and next, on which deliberations will start immediately. Tight revenues will limit the fiscal room for manoeuvre. More broadly the government must find ways to revive the long-dormant economy, especially with American tariffs looming. That the coalition agreement is long on aspiration but often short on detail is potentially a worrying omen, says Ursula Münch at the Tutzing Academy for Political Education. The early agreement on big spending packages means some potential battles have been avoided. But there have already been intra-coalition skirmishes on tax and the minimum wage.

Politically, the leaders of the governing parties must manage mps among whose ranks evidently lurk troublemakers; a potential headache for a coalition with a majority of just 12. Another imminent challenge might be managing calls to ban the hard-right Alternative for Germany (afd) party, which domestic spooks on May 2nd labelled a “confirmed” case of right-wing extremism. Mr Merz is known to be sceptical of a ban. But many mps, including some of his own, want to clamp down hard.

Much will rest on the abilities of those at the top. The cabinet assembled by Mr Merz and Lars Klingbeil, the spd co-leader and new vice-chancellor, is notably thin on experience (bar Boris Pistorius, whose term as defence minister has been renewed). Their challenge will be to ensure that the compromises needed to oil the wheels of the coalition do not turn to inaction. “He may need to travel more than many chancellors before him,” says Jens Spahn, the new leader of Mr Merz’s parliamentary group. “But we all need to ensure that everything goes well at home.” Worryingly, a large majority of Germans say that they do not trust Mr Merz.

If the Bundestag vote offered a silver lining, it might be to temper the expectations heaped on Mr Merz’s shoulders abroad. Hopes that his vigorous pro-eu rhetoric might be parlayed into signing on to a jumbo package of joint debt to fund common defence schemes, for example, may be reined in after this week’s demonstration that his power sits on rocky foundations. However global his ambitions, Mr Merz cannot neglect the home front. ■

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