Which countries would benefit most from an American brain drain?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP seems intent on weakening America’s reputation as a land of opportunity for talented immigrants. In the past few weeks the country’s immigration agency has detained foreign graduate students, lecturers, engineers and doctors who say they hold valid visas. The federal government has slashed funding for academic research. And American tech firms have warned immigrant employees not to leave the country lest they be barred from returning. Mr Trump’s administration is pushing talent away—and other countries are hatching plans to pull it their way. Our analysis shows which countries stand to gain the most from an American brain drain.

The figures are drawn from our “footloose index”, a ranking of 135 countries and territories based on their attractiveness to foreign talent. The index is based on answers to the question: how much would a country’s graduate population grow or shrink if graduates could go where they pleased? To find the answer we analysed data from Gallup, a pollster, which surveys annually 150,000 people from more than 140 countries and territories. The survey asks people if they want to move abroad and, if so, where. Our proxy for talent is respondents who said they had completed an undergraduate degree.

In the overall rankings for 2022-24 Canada once again came out on top. If all barriers to moving were lifted and graduates were free to go where they pleased, Canada could gain a net 13m talented people, increasing its graduate population by 150%. Australia ranked second; America came third. By our estimate, accounting for both inflows and outflows, America’s graduate population would increase by 5m—or around 7%—if moving were frictionless.

The most recent survey was conducted in 2024, before Mr Trump’s return to office, so it is not yet possible to measure how his second presidency has affected America’s appeal. But if Americans leave, we can infer where they are most likely to want to go.

In 2022-24 18% of graduates living in America reported a desire to move abroad—more than in any other country in the top five of our index. Britain and Canada are the most attractive destinations. By our estimates 1.2m graduates living in America would up sticks for Britain if they could, and 1.1m would head north to Canada. Other anglophone countries, such as New Zealand and Australia, could also gain plenty of American talent, as could rich European nations such as Germany, Switzerland and Norway. Many graduates in America are also attracted to Mediterranean countries, like Italy, France and Spain.

If more graduates want to leave America, fewer foreigners may want to come. Since the Gallup surveys began in 2010 America has consistently been the most appealing country to foreign talent. In 2022-24, by our calculations, 20m well-educated people wanted to move there, compared with 14m who preferred Canada (which has a much smaller population). But Trumpian hostility to foreign workers may change those preferences.

In the past few years would-be immigrants to America have been mainly from China, India, Mexico and Brazil. Where might they go if America loses its allure? We don’t know what each respondent’s second choice is. But we do know the most popular potential non-American destinations in each country, which may offer a clue. Among talented Chinese and Indians who do not have America as their first choice, Australia and then Canada are the most desirable places to go. For Mexicans it is Canada and Spain; Brazilians prefer Portugal and Italy. Overall, if all those who would pick America first instead chose another country—assuming they have similar preferences to their compatriots who also reported a desire to move—Australia, Germany, Switzerland and Japan would be among the top five alternatives. Canada would benefit most. ■