How China can respond to new headache of Russia-North Korea treaty
However, the treaty invoking Article 51 is critical. The article mandates reporting self-defence measures to the UN Security Council, which retains the authority to maintain or restore international peace and security.
This provision imposes two conditions: immediate reporting of self-defence actions to the Security Council and ensuring such actions do not impede the council’s authority to maintain peace. For North Korea, which is already under UN sanctions for nuclear weapons development, this means any self-defence involving nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles could be deemed illegal.
Therefore, Article 4 of the North Korea-Russia treaty significantly limits both countries’ wartime conduct, particularly North Korea’s. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely included this clause to maintain flexibility in dealing with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime.
03:05
Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
The primary goal of the treaty seems to be showing solidarity against the West, allowing both sides operational room in the geopolitical landscape without forming an official defence pact. This is evident as previous treaties between North Korea and the Soviet Union or China and North Korea do not have similar conditions in them.
Despite the restrictive nature of the treaty, potential Russian military aid to North Korea poses significant threats to Chinese national security. China has traditionally used economic leverage to moderate North Korean and Russian behaviour, with varying success. The new treaty jeopardises this balance in several ways.
First, Russian assistance in military technology directly threatens regional stability and China’s security interests. The treaty mentions cooperation in various scientific and technological fields, many of which could have military applications. This would increase risks to China’s national defence and border security.
The treaty could also lead to the perception that North Korea prioritises its relationship with Russia over ties with China. Reduced Chinese influence over a neighbouring country with nuclear capabilities and minimal internal restrictions could worsen China’s security. South Korea’s proximity to China adds complexity as strengthened North Korea-Russia ties could destabilise the Korean peninsula.
The Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge across the Tunmen River carries rail traffic across the Russia-North Korea border. Photo: Handout
To safeguard its interests, China must distance itself from the North Korea-Russia alliance and negotiate with Russia to prevent the transfer of nuclear missile and advanced military technology to North Korea. This will protect China’s security and uphold UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has emphasised the importance of adhering to these sanctions, stating that any country with a bilateral relationship with North Korea must comply with them.
China should also clarify Russia and North Korea’s commitment to implementing elements of May’s Sino-Russian joint statement, which includes granting Chinese fishing vessels access to the Sea of Japan via the Tumen River. This access is vital for China’s fishing industry and maritime security. Ensuring it would symbolise a broader commitment to cooperation and respect for international agreements.
Careful diplomacy is required to secure this access. China must emphasise the economic and mutual benefits of honouring the Sino-Russian joint statement, including the provisions on fishing access. Framing the issue within the context of broader bilateral cooperation will strengthen China’s negotiating position.
Maintaining access to the Sea of Japan would serve as a stabilising factor in the region, demonstrating China’s ability to uphold international agreements and work collaboratively with its neighbours. This can help mitigate tensions and foster a more cooperative regional environment.
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Xi welcomes ‘old friend’ Putin to Beijing, affirms strength of China-Russia bond
Xi welcomes ‘old friend’ Putin to Beijing, affirms strength of China-Russia bond
China’s relationship with Russia is multifaceted, characterised by both cooperation and competition. While both share an interest in counterbalancing Western influence, their strategic objectives do not always align. The Russia-North Korea treaty exemplifies this tension.
Russia’s increasing military cooperation with North Korea complicates China’s efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Russia and a united front on key global issues. China must navigate this delicate situation by leveraging diplomatic channels to dissuade Russia from destabilising actions and using economic incentives to influence Russia’s actions. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on trade with China, providing Beijing with leverage.
Another strategic move China should consider is strengthening relations with South Korea, a democratic ally of the West with its own security concerns regarding North Korea. Establishing a closer relationship with South Korea via economic partnerships and joint initiatives to foster mutual trust and cooperation could provide China with valuable leverage in regional diplomacy.
In conclusion, the Russia-North Korea treaty poses significant challenges to China’s national security and regional stability. Beijing’s strategic response should involve diplomatic negotiations, strengthening ties with South Korea and firm measures to protect its interests and uphold international law. By navigating these complex dynamics, China can safeguard its interests and maintain its influence in East Asia.
Cao Xin is senior researcher of The Charhar Institute. Cao Zhong also contributed to this article
