Could there be Chinese troops in Europe?

Since russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago, China has been a stalwart supporter of its giant neighbour, and has mostly ignored Ukraine. While professing neutrality, it has aided Russia by buying oil and gas and selling technology for weapons. Now, as America and Russia explore talks about ending the war, China sees possible rewards. Despite close ties with the aggressor, it hopes that offers to help resolve the conflict will nurture the image it seeks as a benign great power.

On February 20th, at a meeting in South Africa of foreign ministers from g20 countries, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, noted that a “window of opportunity for peace” was opening in Ukraine. “China will continue playing a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis,” he said. So far, it is on the sidelines. No Chinese diplomats were present two days earlier when America’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, met in Saudi Arabia. No mention was made by either side of possible Chinese involvement in peace efforts.

On Chinese social media, some commenters worry about a “reverse Nixon” moment, referring to the American president’s trip to China in 1972 that led to Sino-American alignment in the cold war against the Soviet Union. But their fears that Russia and America may now jointly turn against China are misplaced (see The Telegram). It is more likely that China senses an opportunity as President Donald Trump upends his country’s security relationship with its nato allies, blames Ukraine for the war and makes sweeping concessions to Russia. China may hope to capitalise on the transatlantic rift by repairing its battered relations with Europe.

On February 14th, at the annual Munich Security Conference, America’s vice-president, J.D. Vance, shocked delegates by all but ignoring Ukraine. “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China…what I worry about is the threat from within,” he said, referring to efforts to stifle hard-right views. The next speaker was Mr Wang, whose words, though less abrasive, were clearly aimed at American actions. “The world today is witnessing incessant chaos and confusion,” he said, “and one important reason is that some countries believe might makes right and have opened a Pandora’s box marked ‘the law of the jungle’.” As one delegate, Steven Everts of the eu Institute for Security Studies, put it: “Such is the world today that some Europeans found that reasonable in comparison.”

China is fishing for propaganda wins. Soon after the war began, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, announced a “global security initiative” that presented his country as a peacemaker. In 2023 China issued a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that seemed designed to achieve the same, with no clear roadmap for ending the war. The plan went nowhere. There are signs that Ukraine, at least, is keen that China do more. “As a global player, China has a crucial role to play in achieving peace,” gushed the chief of staff of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, after a meeting between the Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers at the Munich conference.

Yet China still appears content to remain on the margins. It does not want to have to express views that are clearly different from Russia’s, though it has not recognised Russian claims to sovereignty over parts of Ukraine. (In a call with Mr Putin on February 24th, Mr Xi said the two countries were “true friends”.) But China does not want to complicate its already fraught relations with America either. Zhou Bo, a former senior colonel in the Chinese armed forces who is now at Tsinghua University in Beijing, suggests that Chinese troops could lead a un-mandated peacekeeping operation in Ukraine if one is launched. But China is clearly waiting for the dust to settle before making such an offer public. Before then, it may be cautious, not least given the sensitivities of some European governments about Chinese troops being deployed on the continent.

If a durable agreement on ending hostilities is reached, China will encourage firms to hunt for potential profit in Ukraine’s reconstruction, reckons Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, a Berlin-based think-tank. “I think they see this as a potential way out of the difficult position that they put themselves in by supporting Russia,” she says. At a news conference in Kyiv on February 23rd, Mr Zelensky seemed keen, too, offering business opportunities. China, for its part, sees little to lose by waiting. ■