Biden may face tough choices as port strike continues

Biden told reporters Tuesday that he would not use a federal labor law to force the longshoremen back to work, and the White House has thus far focused public attention on the big profits of the international shipping lines that comprise the maritime alliance negotiating with the workers. But whether — or for how long — the president will stick to this posture has become a source of speculation in Washington, as Democrats try to project economic stability ahead of the November election.

Although the strike is in its initial stages and a deal could still be reached, Biden may soon face a difficult set of choices around his allegiance to union workers and Democrats’ need to win the November election: Disruptions to the economy could upset voters, but Democrats are also counting on union turnout this fall. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has thus far directed requests for comment on the strike to the White House.

“This could end up being quite disruptive at a very sensitive moment for the campaign,” said Bill Galston, who served as an economic policy aide to President Bill Clinton. “The question of what Biden wants to do might be wrapped up with what would serve the interests of the person who wants to be his successor. I’m sure he wants to do right by the union, but there are other interests at play, and right now, this is a game for all the marbles.”

Biden on Tuesday urged the port employers to produce an offer to the striking workers that includes a “meaningful increase” in their wages, citing the dangerous work they did during the pandemic. He added in a subsequent statement: “Collective bargaining is the best way for workers to get the pay and benefits they deserve.”

White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre also told reporters Tuesday that shippers’ profits have grown 800 percent compared to before the pandemic, with similar increases in executive compensation and shareholder returns. Asked whether the president would consider invoking Taft-Hartley, the 1947 labor law that could give Biden authority to end the strike, Jean-Pierre said: “We have not used Taft-Hartley, and we aren’t planning to.”

Most analysts do not expect consumers to immediately feel the effects of the strike, which could buy the White House some time as talks continue. The overall impact to the nation’s economy is likely to remain small — possibly less than half a percentage point of the gross domestic product — even if the impasse stretches on for several months, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM.

It’s also hard to see the president reversing himself on an issue core to his political identity. Biden has for decades been a stalwart defender of labor rights, repeatedly vowing to be the most “pro-union” president in U.S. history. He became the first sitting president to walk a picket line last year, joining the striking United Auto Workers, and has backed union legislation on everything from government contracts to new public infrastructure. Longtime White House aides routinely describe Biden as personally committed to maintaining close ties to labor.

Moreover, it’s not clear whether ordering the unions back to work could backfire politically. Many of the board members of the shipping association involved in the strike are foreign firms, which may give Biden greater latitude to blame them rather than workers for any subsequent disruption.

“This is a very close election, and to win, Democrats needs Wisconsin and Michigan and other industrial states. If workers don’t go to the polls because they’re angry about what Biden did in the dockworkers strike, it could be devastating for the party,” said Kate Bronfenbrenner, director of labor education research at Cornell University. “Large corporations do not have public support and unions do — though if it comes to people not getting the things they need from the stores, it’s hard to say how it would play.”

Still, a prolonged disruption from the strike could reprise some of the most politically damaging scenes from the Biden administration. Harris has narrowed former president Donald Trump’s lead in polls, but voters have for years been angry with the Biden administration over inflation and the goods shortages that emerged in 2021 and 2022 amid supply chain disruptions. The rate of price increases is returning to normal, but many items still cost far more now than they did when Biden took office.

And some of the strike’s impacts have been visible, with backlogs of ships anchored off major East Coast trade hubs. Fourteen major ports covered by the union contract comprise over half of the country’s cargo container trade — serving as crucial nodes in supply chains that connect the United States to the global economy.

“A major port strike runs the risk of pushing inflation back up, which would obviously be unwelcome for the incumbent party,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group. “An approach to industry highly deferential to labor unions risks undermining other policy goals, and this is something we’ve seen before from the Biden administration.”

Lauren Kaori Gurley contributed to this report.