Russian military replaced Ukraine battlefield losses ‘far faster’ than expected, general warns

The top U.S. commander in Europe and NATO is warning Congress that Russia has replaced its heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine, and did it faster than anticipated.

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who heads up European Command and is also NATO's supreme allied commander on the continent, made the case Thursday for long-stalled aid to Ukraine, telling senators that Kyiv "could lose" without further U.S. assistance.

"The overall message I would give you is [Russia’s military has] grown back to what they were before," Cavoli told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "They've got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is very significant still, and they intend to make it go higher."

In a written statement, Cavoli also sounded the alarm that Russia's army has even more manpower than when it launched its full invasion in February 2022. Moscow has also boosted its frontline troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000 soldiers, he noted.

"Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested," Cavoli wrote. "The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine."

The four-star general told senators that Russia has also replenished its heavy tank losses on the battlefield and now operates as many tanks in Ukraine as it did during the beginning of the full conflict.

Cavoli's testimony is the latest warning about the state of the war in Ukraine and Russia's military capability.

It comes as pressure builds on lawmakers to pass $60 billion in Ukraine aid that's been stalled for months on Capitol Hill. The House could soon act on its own proposal, two months after the Senate cleared a $95 billion package to provide funding to aid Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Cavoli warned that Ukraine is still "almost entirely dependent" on outside support to fend off Russia, and particularly on the U.S. for artillery shells and air defense interceptors. If assistance isn't reupped soon, he said, the fight would swing to Russia. And if successful in Ukraine, Russia would likely threaten other Eastern European countries.

"The severity of this moment cannot be overstated. If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose," Cavoli said.

"If Ukraine fails in this fight, I think problems radiate outwards, beginning with Europe. So there will be the possibility — the probability — that Russia will continue aggressive behavior," he said. "They will certainly be emboldened. They're certainly building a military that's going to be capable of it."

Cavoli made similar warnings a day earlier before the House Armed Services Committee. Ukrainian troops, Cavoli told House lawmakers, are being outshot 5-to-1 as Kyiv rations artillery shells. That disparity would double to 10-to-1 "in a matter of weeks," he predicted.

"If one side can shoot and the other side can't shoot back, the side that can't shoot back loses," Cavoli told House lawmakers.