Josh Rogin was right in his Feb. 25 op-ed, “Kyiv wants to know if NATO still wants them,” that the United States and its NATO allies have been waiting far too long to decide whether Ukraine should be a member in the alliance. It’s past time for Washington to give the Ukrainians an answer: Thanks, but no thanks.
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Having Ukraine join NATO now is too risky
The conventional wisdom holds that Ukraine’s long-term security is best accomplished by bringing Kyiv under the NATO umbrella. But this is wrong for a number of reasons. First, it would likely lengthen the duration of the war, not shorten it. Even the faint prospects of a negotiated settlement would evaporate if the Ukrainians were given the option to join. Russian President Vladimir Putin would have no incentive whatsoever to stop waging war, let alone negotiate peace, if he knew Ukraine would become a NATO member at the end of the conflict.
Second, even if Ukraine did join NATO, it’s not clear Russia would believe that the United States and its European allies would fight on Kyiv’s behalf. The West has repeatedly opted not to do so over the past two years, and the United States has gone as far as restricting U.S. weapons from being used to strike Russian soil. If NATO is unwilling to fight a nuclear-armed Russia to defend Ukraine today, why would the alliance do so in the future?
Instead of continually teasing Ukraine with phantom NATO membership at some undefined point in the future, the alliance should be honest with Ukraine: We will support you, but the costs of formal membership simply outweigh the benefits.
Daniel R. DePetris, Washington
The writer is a fellow at Defense Priorities.