The U.S. urges restraint in the Mideast, but girds for a possible fight

Wars often result from a fundamental conflict of national interests. That’s part of what’s triggering this confrontation between Israel and Iran. But it’s also driven by intangible factors: Israel’s desire to restore deterrence and Iran’s determination to preserve its national dignity.

This confrontation might have begun with a mistake. U.S. officials believe that Israeli leaders didn’t expect Iran to retaliate directly for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during his visit to Tehran last month. He was killed by a concealed explosive, with no telltale fingerprints. But Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, treated the attack on a guest as an Israeli insult that required retaliation.

“We consider it our duty to seek revenge for his blood as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Khamenei said in a statement. Whether and how Iran will carry out its leader’s command is unclear to U.S. officials, but they are taking the threat very seriously.

This wasn’t the first time this year that Israel appeared to have misjudged Iran’s determination to avenge a grievance. U.S. officials believe that Israel similarly didn’t expect direct Iranian retaliation when it attacked several top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders who were visiting Damascus in April. But Iran struck back later that month with a barrage of more than 300 missiles and drones. Fortunately, most of them were intercepted, and the attack did little damage.

The best outcome to this crisis would be for both countries, prodded by the international community, to agree to a cease-fire in Gaza and to release Israeli hostages. This peace plan is backed by the U.N. Security Council, the Group of Seven and moderate Arab countries. Israel’s defense and security establishment supports it, and Hamas has dropped its main objection. The chief holdout has been Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to seek “total victory” in Gaza — which Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says is unrealistic.

President Joe Biden, joined by the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, who have been his mediating partners, has called for a resumption of negotiations on Thursday “to close all remaining gaps.” But even administration officials aren’t sure whether that invitation will draw the parties toward a final deal or a rejection that could spark a wider conflict.

If diplomacy fails, the Biden administration is betting that it can repeat the defensive wizardry that deflected the Iranian missile and drone assault in February. The Pentagon has dispatched what officials say is the biggest force sent to the region in many years, including two aircraft carriers, many guided-missile destroyers, F-22 fighters and an attack submarine carrying powerful conventional missiles that could devastate Iran’s cities. If Iran strikes Israel, the United States might threaten to use this vast force if Iran doesn’t immediately halt attacks.

The danger this time is that Iran might have learned from its failure to penetrate U.S. and Israeli defenses in April — and has devised new tactics. Iran might also hope to overwhelm the defenders by combining its barrage with an even larger missile assault from Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as attacks by proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Middle East today is like the proverbial a row of dominoes. Once one falls, it could trigger a cascade that would sweep the region.

Though Israel and Iran often seem locked in an existential conflict, Biden administration officials believe that both countries have been trying to avoid all-out war since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. Hezbollah began firing rockets on Israel the next day, but rarely against civilian targets; Israel has responded forcefully, with targeted killings of many Hezbollah leaders, but not a full-scale attack on its stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

As administration officials assess the situation, they hope that Iran and Israel are both seeking a measured response. Iran must act to redeem its dignity — but not so aggressively that it invites a reprisal that would threaten the Iranian economy and the regime itself. Israel, too, wants to demonstrate resolve without inviting a mass-casualty attack that would bring on a regionwide explosion of violence.

Strategists like to speak about ladders of escalation as if they can see each rung and measure every step. But as Roule warns, “We should all be concerned that the region is moving into truly unknown territory.” The United States has been trying to stop this war, but it could get drawn in, just the same.