Narendra Modi could respond to disappointment in two different ways

The Indian voter has confounded expectations again. A decade ago, when Narendra Modi swept to power with an outright majority in parliament, a quarter-century of messy coalition politics came to an end. When his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expanded that majority to 353 of the 543 seats in the lower house five years later, many pundits hailed the dawn of a new “dominant-party system” akin to independent India’s first three decades, when the Congress party ruled without interruption.

Such was Mr Modi’s confidence in the build-up to this year’s general election that he set an even bigger target for the BJP and its allies this time, pledging to win 400 seats. As the voting was under way, he outlined a 1,000-year vision for India. And in late May he told a television interviewer, “God has sent me for a purpose.”

That purpose, it seems, was to provide a cautionary tale about overconfidence. Although the announcement of the results on June 4th revealed that the BJP and its allies had prevailed again, they fell far short of their target, winning only 293 seats (see chart and map). That was 60 fewer than in 2019. Worse still, the BJP itself garnered only 240 seats, down from 303 last time. That means it no longer commands a majority in its own right. Although Mr Modi will almost certainly remain prime minister, he will be beholden to his allies. He will have to yield more to them on cabinet appointments, legislation and spending—much as successive coalition governments did before 2014.

The BJP prevails; democracy wins

The outcome is undoubtedly a win for Indian democracy. Opposition leaders had billed the poll as a battle for the nation’s soul, citing Mr Modi’s efforts to stifle dissent and stir anti-Muslim sentiment among the Hindu majority. Such concerns intensified before the vote as Mr Modi inaugurated a controversial Hindu temple in the city of Ayodhya and authorities arrested two opposition party leaders on corruption charges. Voters have shown that the political system is mature and resilient enough to correct course and that economic concerns such as unemployment trump appeals to chauvinism.

The real test, however, will be how Mr Modi responds to this rebuke. As a former adviser puts in our new eight-part podcast about the prime minister, “The Modi Raj”, which launches this week, “One of his strengths is his ability to evolve.” Under one scenario, he could restrain his ideological instincts and prioritise his main economic goal, to transform India into a developed country by 2047, the centenary of independence. A less confrontational approach to politics could help him tackle some of the country’s most important long-term challenges, including agricultural and labour reforms, which require extensive consultations with state governments and other stakeholders. It could also ease tensions between India’s north and its richer, less populous south.

The alternative is that Mr Modi, unaccustomed to sharing power, doubles down on the sectarian and authoritarian elements of his agenda. That could mean more corruption probes into the opposition, a bid to scrap Muslim family laws and campaigns to replace more mosques with Hindu temples. He could also escalate efforts to use administrative and fiscal powers to obstruct state governments that his alliance does not control. Although such moves might help him preserve power, they could hinder economic growth and widen religious and regional divides. Given that India is the fastest-growing of the world’s big economies and a much courted geopolitical counterweight to China, such a choice would have unfortunate ramifications far beyond his country’s borders.

The election results appear to be an argument for moderation. As “The Modi Raj” describes, the prime minister’s politics has long blended religious revivalism with economic development, with the intention of both rallying the BJP’s Hindu nationalist base and broadening its appeal among the wider electorate. But this time, when turnout in the first regions to vote proved relatively low, Mr Modi focused on firing up his core supporters. He suggested that Congress planned to bulldoze the new Hindu temple in Ayodhya and distribute Hindus’ wealth among India’s Muslim minority—whom he called “infiltrators”.

The strategy failed. Economic anxiety, over employment and inflation in particular, seems to have mattered more to voters than sectarianism, especially in the Hindi-speaking central and northern states that form the BJP’s heartland. In some states, the BJP’s alliance was also hit by fears that if it reached Mr Modi’s target of 400 seats (more than the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution) it would scrap a scheme granting preferential access to education and government jobs for minorities and lower-caste Hindus. Although Mr Modi denied any such plans, his party has resisted opposition calls for a caste census and an expansion of affirmative action. This seems to have harmed its showing in the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh (UP), in particular, where many voters swung to a local party promising a census of living standards for all castes. The BJP even lost in the constituency that is home to the Ayodhya temple.

What disappointment?

Mr Modi put a brave face on the result. In an address to party workers, he portrayed it as an endorsement of his vision of a developed India. “In the third term, the country will write a new chapter of big decisions,” he pledged, flagging the suppression of corruption as a priority. BJP officials stressed that only Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, had previously led his party to three consecutive general-election wins. They also noted that the BJP’s seat tally was more than double that of its nearest rival, Congress.

Opposition leaders, meanwhile, hailed the outcome as a rejection of autocracy. “This country has told Narendra Modi clearly that we don’t want you,” said Rahul Gandhi, the face of Congress’s campaign, who won both of the seats that he contested (he now gets to choose which one to take up). Despite presiding over three consecutive general-election defeats, Mr Gandhi will take heart from Congress’s improved showing, which could help ward off calls for an end to his family’s almost eight-decade grip on the party.

Although Mr Gandhi, who is 53, does not formally lead Congress, he helped cobble together the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), as the opposition coalition dubbed itself. He also helped shape its campaign, which focused on inequality and sought to mobilise a coalition of voters from minorities and lower castes that together constitute about 80% of the population.

Leaders of the opposition met in Delhi the day after the results came out, to discuss whether they could enlist other partners to form a government. This is numerically possible, but would require Congress not only to hold together its own coalition and win over almost all independents, but also to lure allies of the BJP to defect to its side. That would be an improbable feat, especially given the apparent unity of Mr Modi’s coalition.

Even as Congress’s allies were meeting, so was the BJP’s coalition, the National Democratic Alliance. Its members unanimously endorsed Mr Modi as their candidate for prime minister. The BJP will no doubt try to persuade other smaller parties and individual legislators to switch sides, too. It has far greater resources than its opponents to encourage such defections. Still, there will be intense negotiations in the next few days as existing and potential allies try to extract concessions.

One possible kingmaker is 74-year-old N. Chandrababu Naidu. His Telugu Desam Party (TDP), based in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, is now the second-biggest in Mr Modi’s alliance with 16 parliamentary seats. It also won a landslide victory in a simultaneous state election in Andhra Pradesh. Demands from Mr Naidu, who has previously allied himself with Congress, could include support for a new state capital in the city of Amaravati. But his arrest last year over allegations that he misappropriated public funds could provide Mr Modi some leverage too.

Another pivotal figure is Nitish Kumar, the 73-year-old chief minister of the eastern state of Bihar and head of the Janata Dal (U) party, which won 12 Lok Sabha seats. He has often switched sides and teamed up with the BJP again only in January after helping to form the opposition alliance. Mr Kumar has criticised Hindu nationalism in the past. But he is notoriously transactional and will most likely back Mr Modi in exchange for financial support for Bihar, India’s poorest state, and perhaps a prestigious post in Delhi.

Mr Modi will be less beholden to allies than Congress was when it was last in power. Congress formed a coalition government 20 years ago with just 145 seats and another one five years later with 206. Even so, Mr Modi will have to compromise in a way that he has never experienced before in government. He may find that hard, given what former colleagues describe as his “fascination for detail” in “The Modi Raj”. “His ability to manoeuvre both in cabinet nominations and on big decisions that require strength in parliament would be greatly diminished,” says Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research, a think-tank in Delhi. “I think now the smaller parties will become crucial.”

One casualty could be Mr Modi’s plans to expand his infrastructure programme, which has often involved imposing his will on recalcitrant ministries, regulatory bodies and state governments. There could also be greater scrutiny of the beneficiaries of government infrastructure projects. That was reflected in the share prices of several big Indian infrastructure contractors, which suffered heavy losses on June 4th. Among them were companies linked to Gautam Adani, a tycoon with close ties to Mr Modi. The BJP could face pressure from allies to ditch privatisation plans and ramp up welfare spending, too. That could place new strains on government finances. “Some fiscal room may need to be made for populist measures,” said a research note from UBS, a bank. It also suggested that the government could struggle to expand incentives for manufacturing.

Liberal dawn

Some of Mr Modi’s critics also hope that he will rein in his autocratic tendencies. The election outcome means that some of the changes they feared are off the table. Those include any plans to amend the constitution, by scrapping its secular preamble or its commitment to affirmative action for minorities and lower castes. The BJP may also have to drop its manifesto pledge to introduce simultaneous national and state elections, which opponents see as a stratagem to give an advantage to the incumbent party at the national level.

The BJP may also be more careful about the redrawing of parliamentary boundaries that is due after 2026. Southern leaders fear that Mr Modi could expand parliament to as many as 753 seats, with the bulk of new ones going to more populous states in the Hindi heartland. Another gripe is that too much of the tax they pay goes on subsidies in the Hindi belt. The south is likely to have a powerful voice within the ruling coalition in the form of Mr Naidu.

Yogendra Yadav, an activist who advises Congress, foresees greater media freedom and more space for the opposition to speak in parliament. “I do expect the judiciary also to find greater courage,” he said. “I do expect democratic institutions to open up. And above all I expect protests and resistance movements to strengthen.”

If he is right, Western governments will be relieved. They have been reluctant to denounce Mr Modi’s illiberalism. America and its closest allies are focused instead on cultivating India as a strategic counterweight to China. Lately, however, some Western officials have become concerned about India’s trajectory, fearing that democratic backsliding there could bolster China’s efforts to promote its political values globally. A freer India could find it easier to market itself as an alternative manufacturing base for companies reducing their exposure to China.

Still, a shift in Mr Modi’s leadership style is not a given. Even as alliance partners demand favours and business leaders lobby him to advance his economic programme, Mr Modi will also come under pressure from the BJP’s 100m active members and from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu-nationalist volunteer force from which it emerged in 1980 and with which it maintains close ties.

Mr Modi will not abandon Hindu chauvinism, given its centrality to his party and his own identity. His political thinking is rooted in his background as a volunteer for the RSS, which he joined aged eight. In “The Modi Raj” a fellow volunteer describes the young Mr Modi’s ideological fervour, saying his “entire personality is the contribution of the RSS”. Mr Modi may now conclude that he needs to do more to rally his base. He is adept at distracting public attention from previous failings. “On the face of it, it looks to be a political setback but in the last decade, we have seen him converting adversities into opportunities and I will not be surprised if a similar attempt is made,” says Sandeep Shastri, an expert on Indian politics.

Questions about succession will be another source of pressure. Mr Modi is 73 and before the results were known figures in the BJP had stated that he would serve a third term in full, despite an unofficial retirement rule of 75 that was used to jettison some party veterans in 2019. But with his election-winning powers apparently fading, his party may want to start considering possible successors. Competition between likely candidates is certain to intensify. They will need to prove their Hindu-nationalist ardour to win the rss’s backing.

Recent opinion polls suggest that the front-runner is Amit Shah, the 59-year-old home minister and the BJP’s chief electoral strategist. Although overseeing the security agencies gives him a big advantage, he is disliked by many in the BJP and in business and will be associated with the disappointing election result. The runner-up in the polls is Yogi Adityanath, a 51-year-old Hindu priest who is the chief minister of UP and the party’s most vocal Muslim-basher. But he is distrusted by many senior figures in the BJP and will be tarnished by the BJP’s poor showing in his state.

One beneficiary could be Nitin Gadkari, the 67-year-old roads minister who has ranked third as a potential successor in recent polls. As a Brahmin (the highest caste), his popular appeal might be more limited than Mr Modi’s, who comes from a lower caste. Mr Gadkari’s relative reticence on religion and outspokenness on other issues is said to have irked the prime minister. But he is popular with party members and business leaders. He is also thought to have strong backing from the RSS, whose headquarters are in his constituency.

In the end, Mr Modi may have to choose between the two political avatars that have dominated his career. One is the “Emperor of Hindu Hearts” (as an interviewee puts it in “The Modi Raj”), determined to impose a national identity based on the faith of the nation’s majority. The other is the “Development Man”, a moniker he adopted to boost his image as an economic reformer bent on eradicating poverty and unleashing India’s potential. Which incarnation Mr Modi will elevate is unclear. But his choice will determine his legacy—and the future of India. ■

Stay on top of our India coverage by signing up to Essential India, our free weekly newsletter.