Could the Kamala Harris boost put Florida in play for Democrats?
FLORIDA, WITH its 30 electoral-college votes—more than any other state apart from California and Texas—has for some time appeared to be a lock for Republicans. But some Florida Democrats insist that the newly upended presidential race has given them a chance of victory there. Kamala Harris, simply by not being Joe Biden, has injected a jolt of energy into the contest. Democrats in Florida are now trying to convert that excitement into something tangible: thousands of volunteers to get out the vote for the Harris campaign.
“I think a sleeping giant has been awakened,” says Shev Jones, a Democratic state senator. Once Ms Harris entered the race, Democrats began organising fundraisers, prayer breakfasts and other grassroots events with a speed and enthusiasm heretofore unseen in this campaign season. Mr Shev recalls that he was recently on a phone call planning a cookout for 1,000 black men in Miami who support Ms Harris.
On the surface, Miami in particular feels like many other Democrat-dominated American cities. It is highly diverse: more than half of its residents were born outside the United States (indeed, a newcomer can easily manage life speaking only Spanish). And posh districts like Brickell are home to the kinds of highly educated voters that are increasingly drifting towards Democrats. Yet Miami has a Republican mayor, Miami-Dade County went Republican in the gubernatorial election of 2022, and Republican dominance is even stronger elsewhere in the Sunshine State. There are almost 1m more Republicans than Democrats registered as voters statewide.
The Republican Party’s inherent advantages have been building for decades. Among the most salient are Hispanic voters from failed socialist countries who are sceptical of an increasingly progressive Democratic Party. The recent surge of interest among Democrats, even if it generates thousands of new volunteers, is unlikely to be enough to overcome that. A victory for Ms Harris in Florida in November looks plausible only in the event of a Republican national collapse, which seems improbable given how close national polling has been so far.
The chairman of the Democratic National Committee said on July 28th that the party would be expanding its map to include North Carolina and Florida given their competitive potential. Local Democrats are pushing their national counterparts for more support, especially after the Harris campaign’s record-breaking $200m fundraising haul during her first week as a candidate.
How far will the campaign be willing to go beyond rhetorical backing? It could be savvy for the Democrats to create a consistent, credible impression of investing in Florida, if that compels Republicans to play defence on turf they had thought they already dominated. But Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster in Miami, is adamant that his party has little chance of success in the state this year. “Until the Harris campaign spends the first $20m in Florida in 2024, Florida is not in play. Get back to me when they do.” ■