Most Europeans think Ukraine will lose the war, according to survey

With rising worries about a second Trump presidency, the ECFR reports that 41 percent of Europeans want an increase or maintenance of current support for Ukraine — but just a fifth want Europe to compensate for a U.S. withdrawal in support.

A third of respondents — with voters asked in Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden — want the EU to limit its support.

While the survey paints a bleak picture, a majority of those asked are still in favor of continuing to support Ukraine.

On average, just 19.5 percent of those surveyed believe Russia will win. However, in Hungary (64 percent), Greece (59 percent) and Italy (52 percent), majorities want allies to push Kyiv to accept a settlement deal — something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to consider.

The EU and its top leaders have been clear they intend to continue backing Kyiv, but artillery ammunition deliveries have slowed and there is uncertainty over the next military aid package from Brussels.

“In order to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change how they talk about the war,” said Mark Leonard, a co-author of the survey.

"Our poll shows that most Europeans are desperate to prevent a Russian victory. But they also don’t believe that Ukraine will be able to recover all of its territory."

“The most persuasive case for a skeptical public is that military support for Ukraine could lead to a durable, negotiated peace that favors Kyiv, rather than a victory for Putin," said Leonard.