Sunday’s Portuguese election: 6 things to know

LISBON — One thing is certain about the Portuguese parliamentary election on Sunday: António Costa is on his way out as prime minister. The snap vote is the result of the socialist leader’s abrupt resignation in the wake of an influence-peddling probe last fall, meaning that for the first time in nine years, his name will not be on the ballot.

Instead, some 10.8 million Portuguese voters will decide which direction the country takes post-Costa. The outcome is anybody’s guess: Polls indicate that the blocs formed by right- and left-wing parties are nearly evenly matched, and that the far-right Chega party could be the kingmaker.

Here’s what you need to know about the most unpredictable Portuguese election in years.

1. Overshadowed by scandal

Costa’s abrupt exit last November caught everyone off guard. He had governed Portugal since 2015 and was reelected in 2022 with an absolute majority of seats in the country’s parliament. But he left office after being implicated in a probe he said was “incompatible with the dignity of the office.” While Costa hasn’t been charged with any crime, some of his closest associates have been formally named as suspects, and he is the subject of an official investigation by the Supreme Court of Justice.

Following Costa’s bombshell resignation, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa scheduled the vote for spring to give the country’s political leaders time to adjust to the new reality. Sunday marks the electoral debut of the two leading candidates: Luís Montenegro, who heads the center-right Democratic Alliance, enjoys a narrow lead in the latest polls, closely followed by Pedro Nuno Santos, Costa’s successor as secretary general of the Portuguese Socialist Party.

Given the context in which the elections were called, it’s no surprise that corruption is a major concern for voters. But polls indicate they’re also worried about the lack of affordable housing and the decline of the country’s public services. Montenegro argues these issues have become major problems during the past eight years of socialist rule; Santos counters that a right-wing government will only make the situation worse.

2. A real nailbiter

Polls suggest Sunday’s vote could be remarkably close, with the right-wing bloc led by the Democratic Alliance only slightly ahead of a left-wing grouping led by the Socialists.

Neither one is expected to control enough seats in the parliament to form a governing majority, and neither wants to collaborate with the far-right Chega party, which is expected to reap nearly one in five votes. As an added twist, up to 20 percent of voters claim to be undecided and intend to make their final decision at the ballot box — making Sunday’s outcome a true toss-up.

3. Far-right kingmaker?

With neither bloc expected to secure the 116 seats needed to guarantee majority rule, Chega is positioned as a potential kingmaker should Montenegro’s right-wing coalition emerge with the most votes.

Montenegro has repeatedly said he will not enter into a deal with the far right. On Tuesday he urged voters to ensure Portugal gets a conservative government by voting for his coalition instead of for Chega. However, Montenegro’s stance doesn’t rule out forming a government if the far-right group’s leader, the former sports commentator André Ventura, were to offer his backing with no strings attached. Ventura, for his part, has argued voters want a deal to be forged “among all the right,” and suggested that if Montenegro isn’t willing to entertain an agreement with Chega, he could be replaced by a more willing member of his party.

Another possibility could see Montenegro rescued by Santos, who has said he would be willing to make a center-right government “viable” for the sake of the country’s stability.

4. Weakened left

If, instead, the Socialists score the most votes, the rest of Portugal’s left-wing parties are expected to coalesce around a minority government led by Santos. Montenegro says that he will not attempt to form a government if his party doesn’t win on Sunday.

Montenegro has not explicitly agreed to reciprocate Santos’ offer of support for a prospective minority government, but were parts of the center-right to abstain, the left could potentially overcome the nay votes from the far-right.

5. Divided parliament

None of the candidates running in this election are entertaining the possibility of holding repeat elections, which means that for the immediate future, Portugal will likely have to live with a sharply divided parliament — and a far right with whom no one officially wants to work.

Assuming one of the blocs manages to form a minority government, passing legislation promises to be complex. Montenegro has said that if he isn’t prime minister, he will be open to negotiating key bills like the annual budget on a case-by-case basis. Santos has similarly implied that he’d be open to dialogue for the sake of the country’s stability.

6. Historical resonance

This is the last parliamentary vote scheduled to be held in the European Union before next June’s European Parliament election. If the country swings to the right, it will be a blow to the Socialists who counted Costa’s government among their few remaining strongholds.

The election is also significant domestically, coming just a few weeks before Portugal is set to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, the military coup that overthrew the Estado Novo dictatorship. For the first time since then, a far-right party could play a role in choosing the next government.

Earlier this week, Rebelo de Sousa warned against nostalgia for dictator António de Oliveira Salazar’s regime. He added, however, that the revolution had been mounted to forge a democracy that is capable of embracing even “anti-liberals, anti-democrats and anti-egalitarians,” and that its ideals would live on “as long as there are millions of free and egalitarian supporters of democracy in our country.”