China trade: exports end 2023 with 2.3% rise in December, but global slowdown looms
Imports, meanwhile, rose by 0.2 per cent last month from a year earlier to US$228.2 billion, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in November.
The reading, though, fell short of the expectations from Wind for an increase of 0.3 per cent.
“China’s exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells hit record highs,” said Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs.
In December, China’s total trade surplus was US$75.3 billion, compared to US$68.3 billion in November.
Overall last year, China’s total trade declined by 5 per cent to US$5.94 trillion, compared to a year earlier.
Looking ahead to 2024, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment is increasing
Exports in 2023, meanwhile, decline by 4.6 per cent to US$3.38 trillion, year on year, below Wind’s prediction for an increase of 1.8 per cent.
Imports, meanwhile, declined by 5.5 per cent to US$2.56 trillion last year, below Wind’s expectation for an increase of 1.8 per cent.
“Looking ahead to 2024, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment is increasing. To further promote stable growth in foreign trade, some difficulties should be overcome and more effort is needed,” Wang added.
After abruptly exiting from three years of coronavirus-related restrictions at the start of the year, China’s trade experienced a tumultuous recovery in 2023 due to geopolitical tensions, sluggish domestic demand and a global economic slowdown.
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“Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic,” the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report.
The Washington-based international financial institution said feeble external demand would continue to weigh on China’s exports, and slower growth in domestic demand would also hold back its imports in 2024.
The slow import growth reflects domestic demand remains challenging, and export orders may only pick up slowly in 2024
“China’s exports show more signs of a rebound, but we should not be over-optimistic as a base effect is behind. The good news is the tech cycle will likely bottom out, as well as the exports of electronics,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist with Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.
“However, the competition in manufacturing will stay tough in the short-run with potential price cuts, which may bring deflatory pressure to the world.
“The slow import growth reflects domestic demand remains challenging, and export orders may only pick up slowly in 2024.”
More to follow …