Donald Trump’s strange reluctance to get tough with Putin

IT WAS SUPPOSED to be “turkey time”, in the words of Donald Trump. By that America’s president meant the moment to talk bluntly to Russia about whether it would end its war in Ukraine, or face consequences, such as further sanctions. But in his two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin on May 19th, Mr Trump delivered no ultimatum; instead he suggested more peace talks.

That favours Russia. As his forces grind forward, Mr Putin insists that an agreement must be reached on the terms of a peace settlement before the guns fall silent. Ukraine, backed by European leaders, wants an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, followed by talks on a permanent settlement.

Not so Mr Trump. He hailed the “excellent” talks, and posted on social media that “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.” Mr Putin seemed content. “We are generally on the right track,” he noted, saying Russia was ready to work on a “memorandum on a possible future peace treaty defining a number of positions”. These appear to include a demand that Ukraine surrender the territory it still holds in four provinces invaded and claimed by Russia—something that Ukraine’s president, Voldymyr Zelensky, has rejected.

“If the Russians are not ready to stop the killings, there must be stronger sanctions. Pressure on Russia will push it toward real peace,” Mr Zelensky declared, in a measured post on X reflecting his effort to regain Mr Trump’s favour after their bust-up in the Oval Office in February. The two men huddled together in St Peter’s basilica during the funeral for the late Pope Francis last month. Ukraine has also signed a minerals deal with America, agreed in principle to a ceasefire and attended the first direct talks with Russia in nearly three years. European leaders have vowed to keep helping Ukraine. “Europe will increase pressure on Moscow through sanctions,” insisted the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

In recent weeks Mr Trump has begun to ask whether Mr Putin “is tapping me along”. For now, though, he is tapping along all those who want him to get tough. Long enamoured with Russia’s strongman, Mr Trump hovers between three choices familiar to those suffering unrequited love: redouble the courtship; give up; or turn hostile.

When direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last week failed to agree on a ceasefire, Mr Trump declared that only his personal involvement could break the stalemate. The phone call with Mr Putin appears not to have done the trick, however. Mr Trump may yet decide he must see Mr Putin personally to achieve a result. In his read-out, Mr Trump played up the economic benefits of trade with America if the war ends.

Mr Trump may end up looking weak and foolish. At the least, endless talks (even if they actually go ahead) give Russia time to make more gains on the battlefield. A small mercy is that Mr Trump has not repeated his most unpalatable criticism of Ukraine: that it was to blame for the war and that it “doesn’t have the cards” to go on.

Still, a growing concern in the administration is that fruitless diplomacy will turn “Joe Biden’s war” into “Donald Trump’s failure”. Thus some talk of a second option, abandoning the mediation effort altogether. “We’re more than open to walking away,” said J.D. Vance, the vice-president as he left Rome after talks with Pope Leo XIV. America, he insisted, “is not going to spin its wheels here. We want to see outcomes.”

Mr Trump hinted that America’s role would be semi-detached, leaving the two sides to talk to each other, perhaps hosted by the Vatican as the new pope has offered. Any deal, Mr Trump said, “will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.”

Yet walking away in frustration with Russia could have a perverse effect: helping Russia by denying Ukraine the last vestige of American diplomatic support. Mr Zelensky says it is “crucial” that America and European allies remain engaged. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s friends think it is long past time for Mr Trump to take the third option: to increase political, economic and military pressure on Mr Putin until he agrees to a ceasefire.

A bill to impose “secondary” tariffs of 500% on countries buying Russian oil is being readied by hawks in Congress, including prominent Republicans close to Mr Trump. The EU’s 17th sanctions package, set to be approved this week, will not go that far. But it imposes penalties on more Russian officials and vessels in the “shadow fleet” that moves its oil around the world.

Frustrated by Mr Putin but unwilling to give up on him, Mr Trump is choosing not to decide. That may be enough for Russia. Mr Putin may calculate that Russia can withstand the economic pain of more sanctions. He also knows that few in America have the stomach to do the one thing that might really change his calculus: resuming American military support to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year at a time of cost-cutting across the federal government.

In Mr Vance’s view, Mr Putin “doesn’t quite know how to get out of the war”. That is generous. All the signs suggest that Mr Putin wants to fight on. During the Istanbul talks the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, told Ukrainian officials: “We’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes.” Drawing on Russian imperial history, he added: “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” For now, though, the two sides are discussing a more immediate aim: an exchange of perhaps as many as 1,000 prisoners on each side.

On May 19th Mr Putin declared: “The main thing for us is to eliminate the root causes of this crisis.” In Kremlin-speak, that means Ukraine should be weak, neutral, outside NATO and bereft of Western military support. In other words, Mr Putin wants the capitulation of Ukraine, whether on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

The residents of Vasylkiv outside Kyiv were given a taste of that a few hours before the Trump-Putin call. The town, home to a major air base, was struck by dozens of drones overnight. At least one of them hit an arms dump, causing a massive explosion, with shrapnel covering the nearby district.

“It was the loudest, most terrifying night since the start of the war,” said Nadia Piden. The front half of her yellow cottage was gone, exposing wallpaper with the New York skylines. Her neighbour, a 27-year-old named Anna Efimenko, was less fortunate. She died while shielding her four-year-old son, who is now fighting for his life in hospital.

Mr Trump rightly calls the war a “bloodbath”. But he seems blind to the reality that just wooing Mr Putin will not stop it. ■