Running the Liberal Democrats is the easiest job in British politics
“A typical Liberal Democrat will be somebody who is good at fixing their church roof.” What sounds like hammy dialogue from a party political broadcast by Britain’s third party came from the lips of Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader of the opposition. “You know, the people in the community like them,” she continued, in a podcast with Jordan Peterson, a psychologist-cum-Disney-symbologist. “They don’t have much of an ideology, other than being nice,” said Ms Badenoch, who always excels at the former and often struggles with the latter.
Running the Liberal Democrats is supposed to be a miserable gig. The 72 seats it won at the last election are simultaneously a once-in-a-century achievement and an irrelevance thanks to Labour’s giant majority. Sir Ed Davey, its hitherto over-serious leader, is reduced to gimmicks to guarantee any coverage of policy proposals that will, in any case, almost never come into being. If all goes well, at the next election a few million voters will resentfully back the party to stop someone else winning power.
Forget all that. For now, Sir Ed has the easiest job in British politics. Swathes of British political debate are the sole preserve of the Liberal Democrats. Both Labour and the Conservatives, never mind Nigel Farage’s Reform uk, recoil from a closer relationship with the European Union. Labour tiptoes towards a youth-mobility scheme with the club. The idea commands wide support, yet only the Lib Dems cheer it. Others are paralysed by a politics frozen in 2016, as if Mr Farage would again caption a horde of arriving Danish 20-somethings with the slogan “Breaking Point”.
Sometimes the caution is damaging. The Liberal Democrats are the only major party to support a customs union. It is a costless policy that would almost instantly boost growth. Only lack of political courage stands in the way of Labour’s move to a closer relationship with the eu. Labour has a Meat Loaf strategy when it comes to the eu and the economy: it would do anything for growth, but it won’t do that.
When it comes to international affairs, the Lib Dems can take the easy, popular and right option. Donald Trump is reviled in Britain. Labour mps are hemmed in by diplomatic niceties of government. Conservativism has evolved into brain-dead contrarianism to the point where Elon Musk, one of Mr Trump’s wingmen, calling for Sir Keir Starmer to be jailed over his handling of grooming gangs attracted little condemnation from the party’s mps. Sir Ed was one of the few British politicians able to say that a megalomaniac billionaire demanding the prime minister be sent to jail was, in fact, not on.
If certain policy areas are overlooked, it is because certain voters are ignored. The 2024 general election saw prosperous parts of the country revolt against the Tories. Oxfordshire, home to the Barbour-jacket brigade, now has zero Conservative mps. When voters turfed Labour mps out of post-industrial constituencies at the previous election in 2019, a cottage industry of hacks and wonks set about examining why. This time there has been no such introspection, least of all from the Conservative Party’s leadership. “The Conservatives have almost given up,” says Sir Ed, with the feigned sadness of a man who cannot believe his luck.
When only certain types of voter count, it means only certain electoral contests matter. Local elections this May are framed almost entirely by how much Reform uk will damage the Tories in places such as Lincolnshire on England’s reactionary east coast. Yet the story of the morning after is most likely to be Lib Dems delivering a coup de grâce to the remaining Tory councillors—and crucial envelope-stuffers for party leaflets—in Barbour Britain. For all the focus on the threat from Reform uk, the Lib Dems could, with a light tailwind, surpass the Conservatives regardless. Sir Ed has the smallest hill to climb at the next general election. A mere 25 Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives would relegate the party to third for the first time in its existence.
All parties face political dilemmas, yet Sir Ed’s is easier to solve. Labour, for instance, must manage a threat from Reform UK, without losing more votes to the Greens or the Lib Dems, or whichever pro-Palestine party has popped up in inner Birmingham. By contrast, Sir Ed has to offer only more of the same. Practically all the Lib Dems’ targets are found in the south, in places such as Salisbury. Parts of the Conservative Party still understand this corner of England. Jeremy Hunt, a former chancellor who narrowly hung on to his Surrey seat, addressed the concerns of people with fat salaries and fat mortgages. Mercifully for Sir Ed, Mr Hunt and his ilk are far from power in their party.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition
Being far from power in the country at large brings Sir Ed other advantages. Opposition can be a luxury. Unserious policies can be floated, with little opprobrium. Why not have a special pensioner carve-out from the recent increase in the energy price cap, ask the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are still a party of protest, with more in common with their rivals Reform uk than either party would ever like to admit. Each offers a home for voters who want none of the above and each is happy to pledge the impossible or the implausible to win them over.
Politics often happens by default rather than direct action. What the Lib Dems do themselves matters less than the paths other parties choose. While Reform stalks the Conservatives, the main opposition will drift only farther right. An insane Conservative Party is one that will not win back the likes of Oxfordshire. Likewise, if Labour governs well there is little risk in another vote for the Lib Dems. The future of the Lib Dems is out of the party’s hands. If Sir Ed has the easiest job in politics, it is mainly because the other parties are doing it for him. ■