The Liberal Democrats could become the main opposition in Britain

On July 1st Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, performed another publicity-seeking stunt in a campaign full of them—bungee jumping. Dangling by his ankles, Sir Ed shouted: “Do something you’ve never done before: vote Liberal Democrat!” It is far from the likeliest outcome but the Liberal Democrats could be about to do something they have never done in the post-war era: become the official opposition.

The Liberal Democrats are on track for at least their best result since 2010; the central estimate of The Economist’s prediction model has them winning 48 seats on July 4th. But the party could easily pull off a greater shock: there is a small but significant chance that Sir Ed’s party overtakes the Conservative Party in terms of seats. Our model gives the Liberal Democrats a 13.4% chance of becoming the official opposition. Betting markets give the party a one-in-five chance. For a once-in-a-century-type event, these are remarkably short odds.

A few things would have to happen for that to come to pass. The Lib Dems would have to enjoy a spectacularly efficient distribution of votes. Voters would have to engage in relentlessly cynical tactics, with anti-Tory supporters piling in behind Lib Dem candidates in Tory seats. At the same time, Reform UK’s vote share would have to be as large as polls suggest, when the party has typically underperformed its polling in previous contests. And the Conservatives would also have to do even worse than their already terrible polling numbers suggest. But each of these is perfectly plausible.

What would Sir Ed at the despatch box mean? It is not all that clear what the Lib Dems stand for, but becoming His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition would bring all sorts of perks. The main one is profile. Sir Ed would hurl questions at Sir Keir Starmer during prime minister’s questions; the media would feature the party more prominently. It would receive more “short money”—state funding for political parties—to hire aides and run itself. The opposition also gets 17 opposition days, when shadow ministers can table awkward motions for the government. The Lib Dems have always prided themselves as experts in political guerilla warfare. Becoming the opposition would hand them much bigger guns.

It would also be an accidental by-product of Britain’s at-times ridiculous electoral system rather than an example of the popular will. It is just about possible for the Liberal Democrats to come second in terms of seats yet fourth in votes cast (its polling numbers today stand at just 11%). For the Liberal Democrats, long-term critics of the first-past-the-post system, the irony would be delicious.

In short, it would be absurd. But then so is the prospect of a historically large Labour majority, the near-total collapse of the Conservative Party, the rise of Reform UK and the sight of a knight of the realm jumping from a crane shouting: “Vote Liberal Democrat!” In British politics, strange things can happen. ■

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