U.S. hopes Sinwar’s death can spur cease-fire, but regional officials skeptical

Less than three weeks before the U.S. presidential election, the widening conflict in the Middle East has inflamed both Jewish and Muslim Americans, left Democrats divided and the administration vulnerable to Republican charges of weakness and ineptitude.

As both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris celebrated Sinwar’s death, they also expressed hope that the moment would enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory in Gaza and bring Israeli operations there to a close, finally clearing the way to a hostage deal and easing the daily drumbeat of grim headlines: civilian casualties in Gaza, ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a looming Israeli strike against Iran.

But U.S., Israeli and Arab officials and experts with close knowledge of Israel’s war strategy, and of the months-long American-led efforts to forge a cease-fire, said that while Sinwar’s death was welcome, his elimination may have created new obstacles.

Chief among them are whether there is a viable replacement as Hamas leader who is ready and able to negotiate a cease-fire, and whether Netanyahu decides to take the opportunity to begin winding down the war or chooses to double down and seek a wider victory in Gaza.

The answers to those questions will determine the viability of what Biden administration officials said are hopes of reviving a plan, announced by Biden last May, for a lasting truce, the release of more than 100 Hamas-held hostages, massively increased aid for Palestinians and Gaza reconstruction under a new government.

Negotiations over the proposal foundered about a month ago after both Israel and Hamas made irreconcilable demands and Hamas ultimately walked away from the table, U.S. officials said. On Thursday, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters, “We’re going to be trying to push that proposal forward ... we believe it is an opportunity to try and bring an end to this war, and we’re determined to try and seize that opportunity.”

“We honestly don’t have an answer” to whether there is still life in the plan, an Arab official close to the negotiations said. “On the Hamas side, it’s really a question mark because it’s all been down to Sinwar” and the organization’s highly centralized decision-making structure. With other Hamas leaders killed in recent months, “there’s very little clarity as to what’s left of Hamas. Nobody knows who’s next in line.”

Retired Israel Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser said it was “unclear if it’s more complicated or less” with Sinwar out of the picture: “Who is going to take decisions?”

Others were more optimistic. “We need to be realistic about a few things,” said Michael Milstein, a former adviser to the Israeli military on Palestinian affairs. “This is not the end of Hamas, it’s not game over.” But “there is right now an opportunity to promote a deal. Sinwar was the hard-liner. ... I think the basic stance of Hamas will become more flexible after today.”

But whether Israel becomes more flexible after the elimination of it’s main antagonist in Gaza is an open question. “It all goes down to Israel and whether Netanyahu is ready for a deal now or not,” the Arab official said. “Honestly, I cannot read this guy anymore . ... I’ve stopped guessing what he’s going to do; I’ve been wrong every time.”

To the extent Netanyahu himself offered clues Thursday, he seemed to say the war in Gaza and Lebanon would go on. “Today evil has suffered a severe blow, but the mission ahead of us is still not complete,” he said in a televised message.

Repeating a metaphor he used in a speech last month to the U.N. General Assembly, he called on the Middle East to realize that Israel was doing them a favor. “In Gaza, in Beirut, throughout the entire region,” he said, “darkness is retreating and light is rising . ... I call on you, people of the region: We have a great opportunity to halt the axis of evil and create a different future.”

But Netanyahu also sounded triumphant, vindicated in his strategy to achieve “total victory” in Gaza — a policy the Biden administration has tried to convince him is impossible. “It is now clear to everyone, in the country and in the world, why we insisted on not ending the war,” he said.

Shira Efron, a former IDF reservist and now director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, said there are now “essentially two paths Israel can take. ... The first is basically, this is an opportunity to take the win. This is the ultimate win — the ladder we needed to climb down and end the war, get back the hostages” and reach a deal with “whoever is left in the Hamas leadership.”

The other option for Netanyahu and his right-wing governing coalition, Efron said, “is to say Hamas is on the verge” of complete destruction “and we have to continue the offensive.”

Some prominent Israelis urged the former path. “Israel should seize the opportunity for a foundational move regarding the hostages,” opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid wrote on X. “It should strive for a comprehensive deal and also offer financial rewards and safe passage to anyone who brings [out] our … hostages.”

A senior Arab diplomat whose country has diplomatic relations with Israel said there is little expectation among Arab states that Sinwar’s death will mark a turning point for calm in the war. Israel, the diplomat said, views the period before the U.S. election as a “window of opportunity” during which Biden won’t exert significant leverage or punish Israel for its actions, lest it interfere with Democrats’ chances of success in the tight race.

“No one wants to take any decisive action that might affect the outcome of the election,” the diplomat said. This diplomat and others noted that a harshly worded letter sent to Netanyahu by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week, demanding sharp improvements in the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza, provided a 30-day deadline — pushing any potential action beyond the Nov. 5 U.S. vote.

Netanyahu has a choice to “double down” on the ongoing Gaza war “or somehow begin to change the way he’s looked at the political options that might come out of this,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior Middle East negotiator through several U.S. administrations and now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“He still presides over the most right-wing government in Israeli history,” with political constraints that prevent him dealing with the Palestinian Authority, the ruling government on the West Bank that the administration has proposed take over in postwar Gaza, Miller said. “Talking about two states and withdrawal from Gaza. I think those are still off limits for him.”

One of the most extremist members of Netanyahu’s coalition made clear his own wishes Thursday. After congratulating the IDF on Sinwar’s death, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on social media that the military must “intensify military pressure in Gaza, while offering safe passage and financial rewards to anyone who brings back our hostages and chooses to lay down their arms and leave the area.”

“After decades, we are proving that there is a military solution to terrorism!” Smotrich said.

Smotrich warned, in a clear message to those “across the ocean ... who have long tried to pressure us to stop the war,” that “if they are aiming for a surrender deal right now ... I announce to them: forget it.”

As the administration reaches out to Netanyahu’s government, “what we’ll be discussing with them is how they take those strategic objectives that they have met,” such as eliminating Sinwar, “and turn them into an enduring strategic victory,” said Miller, the State Department spokesman.

“And from our perspective, that means a path forward in Gaza that isn’t just a military path forward ... in this perpetual cycle of continuing to fight on the ground there.

“We’re only hours after what is a fairly seismic event,” Miller said, “but it’s certainly something that we want to pursue aggressively.”

Morris reported from Berlin. John Hudson, Abigail Hauslohner and Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.