The death of Pope Francis is more than a powerful distraction from the routine chaos of the Trump administration in the United States – it is a reminder to the increasingly secular West that religion in its many forms is on the rise, rather than in decline.

While the papal succession offers a fascinating glimpse into the arcane mysteries of the Vatican’s autocratic political processes, it also provides an opportunity to review the radical and often controversial liberalisation driven by Francis, and to speculate on whether and how the rapidly changing geography of the Catholic Church will affect his legacy.

The coming conclave to choose a successor is likely to reflect the Global South’s increasing influence on not just the world’s economy but on the importance of religious faith worldwide.

“Faith is set to become an even greater force in the coming decades because the fastest-growing nations, where birth rates are highest, are among the most devout,” wrote the Financial Times’ Camilla Cavendish back in January, adding that “populations are growing where faiths are strongest, and shrinking where they are weaker”.

Studies show a relentless – some say, irreversible – rise in secularism in the West with a strong counterbalancing surge in actively religious communities across the Global South. The latter can be particularly seen in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong population growth combines with still-high levels of religious adherence.

The Pew Research Centre sees the sub-Saharan African population growing by more than a billion people between 2010 and 2050, with North Africa and the Middle East adding 250 million and the Asia-Pacific 880 million.

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