Israel and Hizbullah strike a fragile deal to end their war

AT FIRST the mood in Lebanon was jubilant. Thousands of people jumped into their cars and drove south on the morning of November 27th, hours after a ceasefire ended the year-long war between Israel and Hizbullah, a Shia militia. They were eager to return to homes from which they had fled months earlier.

But as the day wore on, a sobering reality set in. The returnees found terrible damage in southern cities like Tyre and Nabatieh (see map). The Lebanese army warned them not to go too far south, citing the risk of unexploded bombs. Then Israel issued its own warning, declaring some areas in south Lebanon to be closed military zones. On at least one occasion Israeli troops fired warning shots at cars trying to enter a village near the border. The ceasefire held, but the friction was a reminder that it will be fragile and complex.

The deal, which took effect at 4am local time on November 27th, called for a 60-day halt to the fighting. During that period Hizbullah will move its fighters north of the Litani river, about 30km from the border with Israel, which will gradually withdraw its own forces from Lebanon. The Lebanese army will deploy around 5,000 soldiers to the region (it has already sent an initial batch). All of this will be monitored by a panel of five countries, led by America. Israel will retain the right to strike at “immediate threats” in Lebanon.

Both sides have good reason to end the war. It began last year, when Hizbullah started firing rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that massacred more than 1,100 Israelis on October 7th, 2023. For almost a year Israel and Hizbullah limited the battle to back-and-forth bombardment near the border. In September, though, Israel expanded its air strikes across Lebanon, and in October it launched a ground invasion.

A year of combat, both in Lebanon and in Gaza, has placed enormous strain on the Israeli army. Many reservists have been called up for long tours of duty: 54% of those mobilised since October 7th have done more than 100 days of service. To continue the war in Lebanon would mean expanding it, and Israel’s generals are reluctant to impose an even heavier burden on the force. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, alluded to these pressures in a speech announcing the truce: he said the army needed a breather.

As for Hizbullah, its leadership has been largely wiped out this year, including Hassan Nasrallah, its charismatic boss for more than three decades. It has lost much of its advanced missile arsenal and its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Those losses will only mount if the war drags on. Most Lebanese did not want it to begin in the first place and have become increasingly desperate for it to end.

But both sides also have concerns about the deal. Many Israelis fear a repeat of 2006: their previous war against Hizbullah ended with UN Resolution 1701, which called for the militia to disarm. Hizbullah ignored that edict and the Lebanese army, which was meant to patrol the region south of the Litani, was too weak to enforce it. Some Israeli politicians fear that this agreement will prove equally hollow. “We must not do half the job,” said Benny Gantz, the opposition leader.

The Lebanese army is still weak. Five years into an economic crisis that bankrupted the Lebanese state, many soldiers moonlight as taxi drivers to supplement monthly salaries that are worth as little as $100. The army will need donations from Western and Arab backers to recruit and equip more troops. Even with financial help, it is unclear if Lebanese troops will be willing and able to confront Hizbullah.

Around 70,000 Israelis have been displaced from towns near the border for more than a year. Israel’s stated goal in the war was to make them feel safe enough to return home. It is unclear if this agreement will do the job. Mayors of some northern towns criticised the deal, saying they want stronger guarantees that Hizbullah will be kept away from the border.

The five-country monitoring panel is meant to review alleged violations of the agreement. If the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers fail to act, Israel says it will. “The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon,” said Mr Netanyahu. That may not mean a return to all-out war, but there will probably be new rules of engagement between Israel and Hizbullah in the coming years, with frequent Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Many Lebanese will be unable to return home. The World Bank estimates the war has caused $8.5bn in damage and economic losses, more than one-third of Lebanon’s GDP. Close to 1m people have been displaced and around 100,000 homes have been damaged. Entire villages in the south have been razed.

Yet for all the caveats, the ceasefire is a rare bit of good news. A regional war that seemed to be inexorably growing will now shrink. American officials used to say the way to end the crisis in Lebanon was to get a deal in Gaza. Now they hope they might do the opposite. “One of the things that Hamas has sought from day one is to get others in on the fight,” said Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state. “If it sees that the cavalry is not on the way, that may incentivise it to do what it needs to do to end this conflict.” Joe Biden, the American president, sent his top Middle East adviser to Saudi Arabia to make one more push for a broader regional agreement.

He will probably come back empty-handed. The Israeli prime minister has political cover to end the war in Lebanon. Though some of his coalition partners are unhappy with the terms of the ceasefire, they did not threaten to bolt from the government over it. A truce will also please Donald Trump, who told Lebanese-American voters in October that he would end the war in their homeland.

Mr Netanyahu has very different incentives in Gaza. His far-right allies dream of rebuilding the Jewish settlements there that were evacuated in 2005. They have vowed to bring down the coalition if Israel withdraws. The prime minister himself fears that a ceasefire would clear the way for a commission of inquiry into Israel’s failure to prevent the October 7th massacre (he is unlikely to come out of it looking good). And Mr Trump does not seem eager to squeeze him.

For more than a year, Hizbullah insisted it would not stop fighting Israel until Israel stopped fighting in Gaza. Israel has now broken the link between the two fronts. That will take some of the pressure off its overstretched army. But by ending one war, Mr Netanyahu may make it easier to continue the other. ■

Editor’s note (November 27th 2024): This piece has been updated to note that the ceasefire has now come into effect.

Sign up to the Middle East Dispatch, a weekly newsletter that keeps you in the loop on a fascinating, complex and consequential part of the world.