Narendra Modi cuddles up to Vladimir Putin in Moscow
FOR TWO and a bit years India has walked a tightrope when it comes to Russia. Indian officials have refused to condemn its invasion of Ukraine, citing a history of close ties with the Kremlin, as well as India’s need for cheap Russian weapons and oil. At the same time, India has tried to avoid Western criticism by consistently calling for peace, and by presenting itself as a trusted partner for the West in its efforts to manage China’s rise.
Up to now this approach has paid off. But it came under unusual scrutiny when India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, visited Moscow from July 8th to 9th—his first trip to Russia since 2019. Mr Modi was filmed bear-hugging Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, before touring his residence in a golf cart, sharing a private dinner and watching a display by performers on horseback.
The timing made the bonhomie all the more striking. While Mr Modi and Mr Putin toasted their friendship and signed a slew of deals, leaders of NATO gathered in Washington for a summit that was focused primarily on Ukraine. NATO’s partners in the Indo-Pacific—Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—attended. So did Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
Indian officials clearly consented to the schedule knowing that it would give the Kremlin an ideal opportunity to show that Western efforts to isolate it are failing. Mr Modi nonetheless appeared to have been caught off guard when, just before he arrived, Russia launched its deadliest missile barrage on Ukraine in months, killing 44 people at sites including a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Mr Zelensky said it was “a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”.
Mr Modi addressed the missile attack obliquely the next day, telling Mr Putin that the death of innocent children was painful and terrifying. He called again for peace talks. But he did not assign blame for the strike on the hospital, which Russia attributed, without evidence, to a Ukrainian anti-missile system (Ukraine says it has recovered fragments of a Russian cruise missile at the site).
India’s close ties with Russia are not merely a legacy of the cold war, when the Soviet Union provided critical economic and military support. Nor are they destined to wither as India expands defence and commercial links with the West. They are rooted in Mr Modi’s “multi-aligned” foreign policy, which sees Russia as an essential partner in the years ahead. The aim, in part, is to prevent India becoming too dependent on the West and to help forge a less Western-dominated global order. But the objective is also to offset China’s newfound clout with Russia. The regime in Beijing has become its main source of economic and diplomatic support.
Mr Modi’s agenda in Moscow shone light on these ambitions. One priority was to expand India’s exports, so as to balance out the recent increase in its imports of Russian oil and boost annual bilateral trade from $66bn now to $100bn by 2030. The two leaders discussed a new shipping route through the Arctic, and another between Vladivostok and Chennai. Describing Russia as an “all-weather friend” and “trusted ally”, Mr Modi announced the opening of two new consulates in Russia and talked of co-operation in space exploration, nuclear energy and medicine.
As for defence, India has recently become less reliant on Russian arms, turning to France, Israel and other suppliers. Yet Mr Modi signalled that he had no intention of unwinding military ties. Ahead of his visit, a Russian state-owned arms manufacturer said it would make armour-piercing tank rounds in India to supply the Indian army. Mr Modi and Mr Putin agreed to pursue joint development of advanced weaponry and encourage more joint production in India of components for Russian-origin arms.
The relationship has its sticking points. Mr Modi requested the safe return of Indian nationals who had been forced to fight with the Russian army in Ukraine (Mr Putin agreed). India would like to pay for more of its oil in rupees. And it has been frustrated by delays in the delivery of Russian weapons. Nonetheless, Mr Modi has made it clear that India’s ties with Russia are set to deepen. And neither Western pressure nor Russian atrocities seem likely to change that. ■
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