The decision by Israel and Hamas to extend their brief truce in Gaza has created short-term benefits for both sides but amplified uncertainty about how, when and whether Israel will continue its invasion of Gaza.
The agreement, announced by Qatar, to prolong the cease-fire to six days from four has raised expectations that both sides will agree to more short extensions. And if the cease-fire does grow longer, there will be greater external pressure on Israel to make it permanent, and greater internal pressure to end it.
A group of 12 more hostages were released on Tuesday, Israel said, hours after each side accused the other on Tuesday of violating the truce, the first time either has made such an allegation since the agreement went into effect last Friday.
The Israeli military said that explosive devices were detonated near its troops in two places in northern Gaza, and that militants in one area fired on them. Hamas said its fighters had engaged in a “field clash” provoked by Israel, without offering additional details. But neither side signaled that it was pulling out of the agreement.
For now, small extensions serve both Hamas and Israel.
Hamas can prolong its control of most of Gaza after being routed in northern parts of the territory since Israel invaded more than a month ago. A longer pause would give Hamas more time to regroup and reposition its forces, and more aid could be delivered from Egypt to Gaza’s 2.2 million residents, most of whom have been displaced by the fighting and face profound food and fuel shortages.
Israel gets to welcome back more of the roughly 240 hostages who were captured by Hamas and its allies at the start of the war on Oct. 7. For every extra day of the cease-fire, the two sides have agreed to exchange roughly 10 Israelis for 30 Palestinians jailed by Israel. The return of the missing Israelis, many of them women and children, has provided a huge boost for the Israeli public, much of whom follows every exchange closely.
But the longer that dynamic lasts, the greater Israel’s conundrum.
Each daily prisoner release boosts Hamas’s popularity in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where many of the freed Palestinians have returned, and where Hamas and other armed groups are waging a low-level insurgency.
A long pause slows the momentum of Israel’s invasion, endangering its stated goal of removing Hamas from power. Already, Biden administration officials say they have pushed Israel to fight more surgically once it returns to its invasion, as international pressure builds on Israel to stop its attacks entirely.
Most of all, some Israelis fear that a prolonged extension would give Hamas too much influence over the Israeli psyche, said Anshel Pfeffer, a political commentator for Haaretz, a left-leaning Israeli newspaper.
The capture of so many hostages, including a 9-month-old baby, traumatized many Israelis.
The complicated hostage release process, fraught by delays and disagreements between Hamas and Israel, has heightened that torment.
“Israel faces a real dilemma,” said Mr. Pfeffer. “With each hostage release, Hamas holds the whip hand over Israeli emotions. Ultimately, Israel will have to decide between freeing more hostages — or preventing Hamas from dictating the mood of the country.”
Some analysts say domestic pressures will probably prompt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to revive the invasion sooner rather than later. A delayed resumption of the attack would put Mr. Netanyahu on a collision course with far-right government ministers who grudgingly supported the cease-fire because they were assured that the invasion would continue after only a short truce.