Kazakhstan’s referendum on nuclear energy could benefit Russia

“Vote for a nuclear power station!” So said the slogan plastered on billboards as Kazakhstan voted on October 6th in a referendum on whether to embrace atomic energy. The government went all out to win a “yes” vote, despite the country having a devastating history as a Soviet testing ground for nuclear bombs. Officials argued that building an atomic power station is vital to ensure Kazakhstan’s energy security and reduce reliance on fossil fuels to meet net-zero targets in 2060. Nuclear energy, they pointed out, is cleaner than the coal-fired plants that currently generate 70% of power in Kazakhstan, which is the world’s largest uranium producer.

Opponents countered that it would be safer and greener to expand renewables. Nuclear sceptics aired concerns about the environmental impact around the planned site at Lake Balkhash in the south-east, where water levels are already falling. Critics also questioned whether the government of a country where corruption often dogs big-ticket projects could be trusted to build a nuclear plant safely without money going missing. And looming large over the debate was Kazakhstan’s history as a nuclear testing ground. Between 1949 and 1989, the Kremlin exploded 456 nukes at the Semipalatinsk range in north-eastern Kazakhstan, where locals are still suffering the consequences.

But the naysayers’ voices were drowned out by the officially backed “yes” campaign, which monopolised public hearings. In Semipalatinsk, one vocal anti-nuclear activist was arrested during an event. The pro-nuclear lobby swamped the media and dominated the streets with billboards.

Almassadam Satkaliyev, the energy minister, framed the referendum as a “patriotism” test, neatly turning opponents into traitors. Officials prevented “no” campaigners from holding anti-nuclear rallies. A dozen activists were arrested, accused of plotting to foment unrest (six have been released on bail). The referendum was “political theatre” to lend the government’s nuclear ambitions a veneer of legitimacy, thinks Dosym Satpayev, an analyst.

Unsurprisingly, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the president, comfortably won. Official results show that 71% of voters cast their ballots in favour of building a nuclear power station. Companies from at least four countries are now in the running to construct it, including Russia’s state-owned Rosatom.

The inclusion of Kazakhstan’s bellicose neighbour and ally on that list has raised hackles with many Kazakhs. Russia already controls the export routes for 95% of Kazakh oil. Many fret that granting it even more leverage over Kazakhstan’s energy sector would be foolhardy. ■