Can Kamala Harris win Michigan without Arab-American voters?

Kamala Harris’s first encounter with pro-Palestinian protesters since becoming the Democratic nominee unfolded at a campaign rally in a Michigan suburb on August 7th. As Ms Harris spoke to thousands of buoyant supporters, the dissenters disrupted the party vibe: “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide! We won’t vote for genocide!” Ms Harris acknowledged their right to speak, but as they carried on, she lost patience: “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”

The setting for the confrontation was hardly surprising. Michigan gave birth to the movement that encouraged Democrats to cast “uncommitted” ballots during the primaries, to protest against Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. Some 13% of voters in Michigan’s Democratic primary did so. The protest vote was most pronounced on college campuses and in the city of Dearborn, where a majority of residents are of Arab heritage. In nearly half of Dearborn’s precincts the uncommitted vote beat Mr Biden. In Michigan, a swing state, Mr Biden’s poll numbers sank well below the support he enjoyed in 2020, when he won by 2.8 points.

In a close election, young pro-Palestinian voters and the small but changeable Arab-American electorate in Michigan may be decisive. But Ms Harris is doing better in the state, for now. A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters has her up by four points. There is evidence that she is not being as widely blamed as Mr Biden was for the bloodshed in Gaza.

Democratic weakness among Michigan’s Arab-American voters—2-3% of the state’s electorate—predates Gaza. Their preferences track America’s forever wars and culture wars.  George W. Bush won a majority of the state’s Arab vote in 2000. But after September 11th 2001 and the invasion of Iraq, Arab-Americans drifted towards Democrats. For the next five presidential elections Democratic strength among these voters seemed unshakable. In 2020 mostly-Arab precincts in Dearborn favoured Mr Biden by a 67-point margin.

But in the 2022 midterms, long before the war in Gaza, the vote moved back towards Republicans (see chart). The culture wars had come for Dearborn. Concerns that the school library stocked young-adult books with gay characters turned school-board meetings combative. “Republicans were gaining a foothold,” recalls Abed Hammoud, a Democrat and founder of the Arab American Political Action Committee.

A referendum that year to enshrine abortion rights in Michigan’s constitution won statewide by 13 points. But it lost outright in some Dearborn precincts and the city of Hamtramck (see map), which is home to a large Yemeni population. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, won re-election as governor but saw her vote share fall by 22 points in majority-Arab precincts in Dearborn compared with four years earlier.

Then came the war in Gaza. “You had a fire that was simmering, and somebody poured gasoline on it,” says Mr Hammoud. “At this point everything is seen through the lens of Gaza,” he added. As the devastation there mounted, opposition to Mr Biden intensified. Yet since she has become the nominee, Ms Harris appears much better positioned to withstand the protests.

In June some 65% of Democrats who said they were more sympathetic to the Palestinians in the Israel-Palestinian conflict said they had a favourable view of Ms Harris. In the first poll conducted after Mr Biden dropped out, favourable views of her among this group rose by 14 points. And she has also improved her support among Democrats more sympathetic to Israel, whose favourable assessment of Ms Harris rose from 73% to 89%.

Next week Democrats will gather in Chicago to hail Ms Harris as their nominee. Protesters are also expected. A group that puzzlingly still calls itself the Abandon Biden campaign will hold a convention in the city headlined by two pro-Palestinian third-party candidates, Jill Stein and Cornel West. The “uncommitted” movement hopes to organise the handful of delegates it won in the primaries to show support inside the Democratic convention for an arms embargo, something Ms Harris’s campaign has rejected. Ms Harris will be speaking, but will she be listening? ■

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