Keir Starmer’s Gaza problem

LONDON — For U.K. Labour, Gaza is the crisis that just won’t go away.

British opposition leader Keir Starmer faces a fresh revolt Wednesday over a parliamentary motion calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza — three months after 56 of his MPs, including 10 frontbenchers, rebelled in a similar vote.

The party was in already in turmoil over the suspension of two parliamentary candidates following comments they made about Israel.

Now the vote in the House of Commons threatens to reopen divisions over whether Starmer has taken a strong enough line on Israel’s actions in Gaza, while he also battles to show he’s taking a tough stance on antisemitism in his party.

Starmer has maintained a position of near total unity with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak since Hamas launched its attacks on Oct. 7, to the chagrin of many in his party who wanted him to condemn Israel sooner.

Those divisions have been laid bare by the Scottish National Party, Labour’s main rival in the electoral battleground of Scotland. Its motion Wednesday calls for an “immediate ceasefire” — which, until now, has been at odds with Starmer’s call for a “sustainable” end to the conflict.

On Tuesday, Labour announced its own amendment to the SNP motion, for the first time backing an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire.” But it came with several caveats — including that “Israel cannot be expected to cease fighting if Hamas continues with violence” — and omitted the phrases “collective punishment” and “slaughter” to describe Israel’s bombing of Gaza.

‘A lot of tears’

While a Labour official said the shift reflected the stance taken by allies in Australia, New Zealand and Canada, potential rebels appeared split into two camps. The first, on the left, complained Labour’s motion was too caveated. The second liked the motion — but liked the SNP’s motion as well. Neither position bodes well for avoiding rebellion.

To make matters more challenging, arcane parliamentary procedure means Labour’s amendment might not be voted on at all — leaving no compromise option for shadow ministers, who face removal if they back the SNP amendment.

“We’ve got a whole bunch of people on resignation watch,” said one MP, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Several frontbenchers who decided not to quit in November have come under heavy pressure in their constituencies to toughen their line on Israel.

The issue is complicated given Starmer has also been at pains to be seen to be taking a tough stance on antisemitism in his party, promising to “tear out this poison by its roots” when he took over the leadership in 2020. The Equality and Human Rights Commission found “a culture within the party” under Starmer’s predecessor Jeremy Corbyn “which, at best, did not do enough to prevent antisemitism and, at worst, could be seen to accept it.”

A second MP said there had been “a lot of tears” about the Tuesday vote, including from MPs concerned about their and their families’ safety. With tensions high on the Gaza issue, several parliamentarians have already received threats of violence.

“It’s an open goal” for the SNP, said a third MP regarding the nationalists’ parliamentary maneuvering. “[Labour] has blocked itself in.”

Starmer addressed more than 50 frontbenchers in a private meeting Tuesday, urging them to reject the SNP amendment. One frontbencher in the room said he “had a hard time” from colleagues who complained about how the decision was communicated, as well as about their safety.

Starmer told them his stance had to be realistic, because if Labour wins the U.K. general election this year he will need to speak to world leaders on his first day, the frontbencher said. “He was really listening to people,” they added. “He said we’re a serious party who are preparing for government, and we have to position ourselves as such.”

Position moving

But the fact remains that Labour’s rhetoric is — very slowly — hardening. Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy wrote to all Labour MPs Tuesday saying “calls for Israel to show restraint have fallen on deaf ears,” and that any assault on Rafah, where Palestianian civilians are braced for a fresh Israeli attack, “risks catastrophic consequences for the civilian population.” He added that “one-sided demands” that fail to condemn Hamas terrorism “will not succeed.”

Starmer’s rhetoric has been influenced by a change of mood toward Israel among Western allies since the November Commons vote.

The U.S. this week drafted a new Security Council resolution calling for a temporary cease-fire in Gaza — and opposing Israel’s plans to launch a major ground offensive in Rafah. On Monday night Foreign Secretary David Cameron called for “a stop to the fighting right now,” also cautioning Israel against an offensive in Rafah.

After delegates at the party’s annual Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow backed calls for an “immediate ceasefire” — echoing those of the SNP — Starmer agreed a cease-fire “must happen now,” but again insisted it must be “one that lasts.”

Shifts in rhetoric are not enough for some. One official on the left said the Starmer wording on Sunday was “gaslighting” if Labour’s stance had not changed.

A second Labour aide on the left of the party described Starmer’s weekend speech as all “optics.”

Electoral threat

The threat of pro-Palestinian independent candidates challenging those who voted against the Gaza cease-fire in November will be on the minds of some Labour MPs as they go into the voting lobbies Wednesday.

“You could see [there being a scenario] where in a few seats where Labour should have taken it, they just get tipped by having these candidates,” the third MP quoted above said.

With the timing of this year’s general election in the hands of the prime minister, the MP also raised the prospect that Sunak could decide to call an election in May while the Gaza conflict remains at the top of the headlines, in order to make life difficult for Starmer. 

“He might just say ‘f*** it, bite the bullet now Labour’s in turmoil, and you know Benjamin Netanyahu is going into Rafah. If I wait till November, this could all be resolved,’” the MP added. 

But Mike Gapes, a former Illford South MP, is more sanguine about the electoral threat to Labour candidates from the Gaza conflict.

Of reports that current Illford North MP Wes Streeting faces a challenge from British Palestinian activist Leanne Mohamad after backing Starmer’s cease-fire stance, Gapes described the prospect of his former neighbor’s defeat as “a bit of froth.” 

“I don’t think he is in any danger whatsoever. He works hard and has a good team. It won’t be a Portillo moment,” he added, referencing the shock defeat of Conservative political mogul Michael Portillo in 1997. 

Luke Tryl of the More in Common initiative, who regularly tests public opinion through focus groups and polling, agrees.

The electoral geography, he says, is such that “progressive activist voters” — those who are most dismayed by Labour’s position on Gaza — tend to be in safe Labour urban seats.

“Muslim voters themselves rank economy, cost of living and NHS higher,” he says.

Leadership chaos

James Johnson, a former Tory political adviser, believes the “biggest risk” for Starmer is “what the issue says about him.”

The Labour leader’s clumsy response to leaked recordings of a by-election candidate, Rochdale’s Azhar Ali, claiming Israel had “allowed” the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 as a pretext to invade Gaza left MPs concerned about perceptions of chaos and incompetence at the top of the party. Shadow ministers initially rallied round Ali until further comments he made about “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” emerged the next day.

A second parliamentary candidate, Graham Jones, was suspended after the Gudio Fawkes website published a recording of him at the same meeting using an expletive to refer to Israel, and arguing that British fighters in the Israel Defense Forces “should be locked up.”

Pollster Johnson said: “For every voter with strong views on Gaza that Starmer tries to appease, he loses more voters in the middle — who will actually determine whether he reaches No. 10.”