Narendra Modi faces a new threat: his Hindu-nationalist patrons
Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, likes to do yoga to relieve stress. He might have had to do some extra asanas following India’s general election result in June. With his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now bereft of its majority in parliament, he has had to cut deals with coalition partners to remain in power. To appease young voters frustrated by under-employment, he has hurriedly recalibrated his budget to boost spending on job creation. And he recently suffered a big foreign-policy setback with the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, a close ally, as prime minister of Bangladesh.
If that was not enough to unbalance his chakra, Mr Modi is also grappling with an unusually public rift between his party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu-nationalist organisation from which it grew. After weeks of testy exchanges, the two sides held talks on August 11th to repair relations ahead of an annual RSS conclave in Kerala between August 31st and September 2nd. The agenda for that meeting is expected to include the general election result, attacks on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh and, perhaps most importantly for Mr Modi, the future leadership of the BJP.
The first clear sign of a schism emerged in May when J.P. Nadda, the BJP’s president, suggested in an interview that his party, which was founded in 1980, no longer needed the help of the RSS, which celebrates its centenary next year, in elections. “In the beginning, we would have been less capable, smaller and needed the RSS,” he told the Indian Express, a newspaper. “Today, we have grown and we are capable. The BJP runs itself.”
His remarks touched a nerve with the leaders of the RSS, who see themselves as custodians of the Hindu-nationalist, or Hindutva, movement. The organisation claims not to engage directly in politics: it focuses on promoting ideology through 73,000 cells, or shakhas, which meet daily for communal exercises, songs and discussion, often on nationalist themes. But it set up an affiliated political party after briefly being banned following the assassination in 1948 of Mahatma Gandhi, the independence leader, by a former RSS member. That party became the BJP.
For most of the years since, the two organisations have worked closely together. Most BJP leaders—including Mr Modi and Amit Shah, his closest associate, home minister and electoral strategist—started as RSS volunteers. Indeed RSS officials are seconded to senior BJP posts and, under Mr Modi, people associated with the group have taken leading roles in educational and cultural institutions. Lately, however, the balance of power in the Hindutva movement has shifted towards Mr Modi and Mr Shah as they have become increasingly unreceptive to advice or criticism.
The election result gave Mohan Bhagwat, the 73-year-old RSS chief, a chance to strike back. Addressing a gathering of members six days later, he said that a true public servant never displayed arrogance. He called for urgent action to stabilise the north-eastern state of Manipur, where Mr Modi’s government has struggled to quell months of deadly unrest. And he said that “decorum was not kept” in the heated rhetoric of the election campaign.
Two other senior RSS figures weighed in the following week. Ratan Sharda, a veteran writing in the organisation’s magazine, criticised the BJP’s election strategy. He accused it of “not listening to the voices on the streets”. Indresh Kumar, a senior RSS official, then suggested in a speech that Lord Ram, a Hindu deity, had punished the BJP for its arrogance by limiting it to 240 parliament seats. The organisation’s student wing took its frustration to the streets later in June when it joined opposition protests against a government-run national examination body, following widespread corruption allegations.
This is not the first spat between the BJP and its ideological mothership. As India’s first BJP prime minister in the early 2000s, Atal Bihari Vajpayee clashed repeatedly with RSS leaders over ministerial appointments, coalition management and foreign policy. Still, this appears to be the worst rupture since then. And repairing it will be an urgent priority for Mr Modi.
One reason is that he needs the help of the Hindu-nationalist foot soldiers when campaigning for four regional elections in the coming months: in the states of Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and in the union territory of Jammu & Kashmir. The BJP is expecting a tough battle to retain control of Maharashtra and Haryana. The newly energised opposition is also likely to mount a challenge for the poll in Jammu & Kashmir, which is the first since Mr Modi scrapped the Muslim-majority region’s semi-autonomous status in 2019.
A second factor is that the RSS is likely to reassert its influence in selecting a replacement for Mr Nadda, whose term ended in June. Although power within the party still resides predominantly with the prime minister, the BJP’s president is technically its leader. One frontrunner is the current BJP general secretary, Sunil Bansal. Smriti Irani, who just lost her parliament seat, could also become the first woman to lead the party. But a delay in the appointment suggests a lack of consensus.
Third, the RSS could complicate Mr Modi’s plans to choose a like-minded successor. His preference, and the favourite in opinion polls, is thought to be Mr Shah. But the candidate closest to the RSS is Nitin Gadkari, the roads minister, whose relations with Mr Modi have been rocky. Mr Modi, who is 73, is expected to serve a full five-year term. He could even stand again in 2029. Still, he needs RSS backing to do either. And it could try to clip his wings by pressing him to appoint one of its loyalists as deputy prime minister.
Leaders of the RSS have played down the discord. Some observers think it is overblown too. Yet Mr Modi’s government made a significant concession to the organisation in July when it lifted a 58-year-old ban on civil servants being members of it. That will give it far greater influence in the bureaucracy. Mr Bhagwat’s security detail has also been upgraded to the same status as Mr Modi’s and Mr Shah’s.
And there are signs that the RSS and its affiliates are carving out a bigger role in shaping government policy. For example, before releasing the government’s budget on July 23rd, Nirmala Sitharaman, the finance minister, consulted economists including a leader of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, the economic wing of the RSS. It criticised last year’s budget but praised this year’s, which incorporated some of its proposals to support smaller businesses. Ms Sitharaman also conferred with other RSS affiliates, including its labour union and farmers’ body, which have been critical of recent government policies.
The RSS has reason not to prolong the friction. While frustrated by Mr Modi, it wants him in power for now and worries that further electoral setbacks could harm the Hindu-nationalist movement. But if tensions flare anew or the BJP fails in the coming state polls, the RSS might well flex its muscles again. In politics, as in yoga, Mr Modi should watch his back. ■
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