Three charts show that America’s imports are booming

AFTER GROWING at rates that were the envy of the rich world, America’s economy now appears to be slowing. Yet imports would suggest otherwise. In May and June the number of twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs, or a standard shipping container) coming through America’s ports rose by more than 10% year on year, according to Container Trade Statistics, a freight-data firm (see chart 1). Alan Murphy, chief executive of Sea Intelligence, a research firm, says that he would have expected growth rates closer to 3-4%.

A study by Sea Intelligence found that inventory held by American retailers is around $18bn higher than would be expected on current economic growth rates (see chart 2). Mr Murphy says that companies are probably stockpiling ahead of a potential strike at container ports on America’s east coast. Union leaders from the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 dockworkers, have threatened to walk out on October 1st if demands for wage increases are not met. The union and the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents ocean-shipping companies and port employers, began formal talks on September 4th.

Without an agreement, a strike would cause widespread disruption in the lead-up to the Christmas shopping season, despite the stockpiles. According to Sea Intelligence, for every day that dockworkers are on strike, it could take four to five days for port operations to return to normal.

Alternative routes—to ports in the west coast and Canada—are also under strain (see chart 3). The west coast is handling its highest share of imports in four years and Canadian railways, which are needed to transport goods into America, are still recovering from a labour strike that began last year.

Two other factors are making importers anxious. First, missile and drone attacks by Houthi militants on commercial ships in the Red Sea are still affecting global shipping lanes. Vessels that would usually travel from Asia to America via the Suez Canal are being rerouted around Africa, which extends journeys by roughly ten days. Second, new tariffs on components for electric vehicles and other goods from China have pushed retailers to secure additional inventory before prices increase. And things could yet get more urgent. If elected in November, Donald Trump has pledged a 10% tariff on all American imports and a 60% tax on Chinese goods.■