Israel and the Houthis trade bombs and bluster
IT WAS not the first time the Houthis had taken a shot at Israel, not even close. The Shia rebels who control much of Yemen have launched more than 220 missiles and drones at Israel since October. Most have been intercepted over the Red Sea by America and its allies, or shot down by Israel’s air defences. A handful reached southern Israel but did little damage. On July 19th, though, the Houthis hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv, killing one person and wounding at least eight others.
A day later, Israeli jets bombed the port of Hodeidah in Yemen. They hit cranes, piers and oil-storage tanks, causing fires that burned for days. Scores of people were injured, according to Houthi-run media. The past ten months of war in the Middle East have been full of grim milestones. Now add to that list an unprecedented tit-for-tat between Israel and Yemen, two countries almost 2,000km apart.
There was much bluster in the days that followed. The Houthis spoke of a “long war” that had entered a new phase. “The fire that is currently burning in Hodeidah is seen across the Middle East,” said Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister. Each side wants the other to think there has been a marked shift in the regional conflict. Reality, though, may be less dramatic.
Israeli officers claim their strike was because of an “accumulation” of attacks from the Houthis. Few Israelis believe them. The air force had been preparing plans to bomb Yemen for months, but it took a deadly hit on Israel’s commercial centre to put those plans into motion. “What changes the situation is that now we’re under fire from all directions,” says one air-force officer. “We had to respond this time.” Still, it probably cannot make a habit of flying 2,000km sorties with fighter jets, a task that would strain most air forces.
Even if it could, such strikes cause only limited damage. America and Britain have been bombing the Houthis since January as part of a regional task-force meant to deter the group from attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea. The campaign has not worked: the Houthis carried out 16 such attacks in June, more than in any other month this year. Israeli officials complain that the task force has been mostly “defensive”, which is true enough. But Saudi Arabia, which carried out years of air strikes against the Houthis, could not cripple the group either.
Soon after the Hodeidah strike, the Israeli air force released a video of an f-35 refuelling in mid-air en route to Yemen. This was framed as a message not just to the Houthis, but also to their sponsor, Iran, whose key nuclear and military facilities are closer to Israel than Hodeidah is. For now, though, Israel is only going after Iran’s proxies; an ever-expanding game of whack-a-mole is hardly a winning strategy.
Not that the Houthis have been more successful. They speak in lofty terms about their actions, as a “support front” meant to aid Palestinians in Gaza. But their strikes on Israel have not compelled it to halt or slow its war in Gaza. While their attacks on shipping have paralysed the Israeli port of Eilat, they have not brought shortages or high inflation to Israeli consumers. They might land the occasional lucky shot, but cannot field enough long-range missiles or drones to overwhelm Israel’s air defences: a deadly nuisance, not a strategic threat.
Their ostensible support for Gaza has brought the Houthis a spurt of popularity in the Arab world. At home, though, it is fair to say that many Yemenis still resent a group that has presided over a decade of civil war. The economy is a mess. Some 80% of Yemen’s 30m people depend on foreign aid to survive.
Efforts to broker a peace deal with Saudi Arabia have stalled as the Houthis demand ever greater concessions from their foes. The Saudis, nervous that the Yemeni group might resume cross-border attacks on their territory, have gone along with this. On July 22nd they agreed to a deal that would ease sanctions on banks in Houthi-held areas and allow more commercial flights into Sana’a, the capital. The Houthis claim to have the upper hand in a war of attrition against Israel; in reality, they are still trying to win the much longer one in their own country. ■
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