China’s economic, social development under 14th 5-year plan on track despite ‘extremely unusual’ time

Calling the past couple of years “extremely unusual”, Zheng said China has “basically met expectations” in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and residents’ income despite Western-led containment efforts and shocks from the coronavirus pandemic.

However, energy consumption, carbon emission, air quality and childcare service goals, which are high on the agenda for China’s green transition and efforts to counter demographic challenges, are lagging, the report added.

Investor and consumer confidence has remained low amid a bumpy economic recovery after reopening, mainly due to an ailing property sector and subdued external demand.

China is, though, expected to meet its 2023 GDP growth goal of “around 5 per cent”, but decision makers are still facing an uphill battle to maintain steady expansion, address unemployment pressures, revive the private sector and retain foreign investment.

The NDRC’s assessment pointed out that “significant and deep changes” at home and abroad are hindering China’s efforts to completely meet its 14th five-year plan goals.

China is, the NDRC said, still being “choked” by Western countries on key technologies, lacking a long-term mechanism to spur consumer spending and facing rising risks in key areas, including food, energy and finance.

In many cases, it’s the narrative that’s exerting an influence
Zheng Yongnian
The economy is also still suffering from “Covid scars”, represented by stagnant income growth, insufficient jobs and weak confidence, meaning the recovery is lagging behind developed nations, former finance minister Lou Jiwei said at the China Wealth Management 50 Forum at the weekend.

Weak confidence also occurs as Western media plays up China’s national security law and plays down China’s dedication to economic growth, said Zheng Yongnian, a prominent political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen.

“In many cases, it’s the narrative that’s exerting an influence,” he said.

While Western media doubts whether China is still investible, and “demonises” its national security law, China has greater potential for growth compared to Western countries in terms of GDP per capita, he added.

“Beijing should respond with emphasis on three most important things – reform, opening-up and innovation,” he said.

Jiang Xiaojuan, former deputy secretary general of the State Council, also urged people to take a different perspective when looking at the withdrawal of foreign businesses from China amid de-risking efforts.

“Don’t interpret the coming and going of foreign firms into whether they have confidence in China,” she said at the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, noting a combination of reasons, including increased competition from domestic companies and higher labour costs.

“It’s an adjustment to adapt to a new development phase – let’s bear this in mind first.”