How China can help rewrite the future of Indonesian palm oil

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has launched a campaign against illegal palm oil plantations, seeking to reclaim millions of hectares of forest lost to unchecked expansion.

The authorities confirm that plantations on 3.7 million hectares are illegal, and more are under review. In Riau, the heart of Indonesia’s palm oil economy, the government has begun dismantling plantations in Tesso Nilo National Park and relocating families who have long lived within its shrinking forest boundaries.

Palm oil is often treated as a commodity, yet it is also a mirror of civilisation. Each hectare of forest cleared for palm oil erases wildlife and ecosystem services, and destroys the memory written into the land. Despite this, economic tables reduce the story to export and growth figures. Numbers present development, but behind them lies an arrangement where prosperity is bought at the expense of destruction.

Indonesia’s plantations cannot be understood in isolation from global demand. Each tree felled is linked to the appetite of markets abroad.

The nation supplies palm oil to India, China, the United States, Pakistan and Bangladesh, among others. Demand from these destinations fuels expansion. But when the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation is adopted, Indonesian suppliers, whether conglomerates or smallholders, will have to prove they are not linked to deforestation.

China sits at the centre of this unfolding story. In 2024, it absorbed around 15 per cent of Indonesia’s palm oil exports, which are mostly used for food processing and producing consumer goods. About three-quarters of China’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia, binding the two economies together. The scale of this relationship means China’s decisions carry influence far beyond commerce, shaping not only trade but also forests and futures.

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