Donald Trump plays with fire in Atlanta
Among many odd moves Donald Trump has made since Kamala Harris swooped into the presidential race, one of the strangest came at a rally in Atlanta on August 3rd. Mr Trump devoted 11 minutes of his speech to insulting Brian Kemp, Georgia’s Republican governor. He reprimanded “little Brian” for being “disloyal” by refusing to overturn Georgia’s election results in 2020. He said that under Mr Kemp the state had “become a laughing-stock” and Atlanta a “killing field”, suggested the governor was behind his criminal prosecution in Fulton County and accused him of “doing everything possible” to make Republicans lose in November.
Georgia’s Republicans swiftly came to their governor’s defence. “History has taught us this type of message doesn’t sell well here in Georgia, sir,” Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state, wrote on X. Yet Mr Trump doubled down in a press conference on August 8th. Patricia Murphy, a columnist at the Atlanta Journal Constitution, summed it all up as a strategy for “how to lose a state in ten days”.
Trash-talking the home team is never a good idea. But there are three reasons why this move looks like a massive misstep. First, Mr Kemp is wildly popular. At 63%, his approval rating is better than that of any other battleground leader. He has brought new business to Georgia and passed a slate of conservative bills, including an election-integrity law, an abortion ban and permitless carry for gun-owners, without the bomb-throwing rhetoric of the MAGA movement. The cool-headed conservatism he has come to represent in Georgia has kept establishment Republicans on board. His southern drawl and love of Georgia’s football make him the type of politician voters want to get a beer with.
Second, when Mr Trump feuds with Mr Kemp, he tends to lose. The tiff between them began years ago when the governor appointed a senator without the president’s input. It simmered when Mr Trump criticised Mr Kemp for opening nail salons and gyms during the pandemic. And it boiled over in 2021, when Mr Kemp refused to recognise fake electors planning falsely to verify the president’s re-election. When Mr Trump went after Mr Kemp the next year it did not go well. The governor trounced David Perdue, a former senator whom Mr Trump recruited to challenge him in the primary, by 52 points. Georgia’s Republicans sent a clear message: if it is between their governor and their former president, they choose the governor.
The main reason Mr Trump’s attack looks like a blunder is that most paths back to the White House run through Georgia—and the state is not looking nearly as locked in as his campaign had hoped. Before Joe Biden dropped out in mid-July, polls suggested Mr Trump would easily win there. New numbers released last week show Mr Trump and Ms Harris in a dead heat. With 16 electoral-college votes, Georgia is the biggest prize after Pennsylvania among swing states. Mr Trump himself told the crowd at that same Atlanta rally that “If we lose Georgia, we lose the whole thing and our country goes to hell.”
Ridin’ the storm out
Mr Kemp has never swung back at Mr Trump. But there are signs of displeasure. In April Marty Kemp, Georgia’s First Lady, said she plans to write her husband’s name on the ballot in November rather than voting for Mr Trump. And in an interview in June, the governor admitted he had cast a blank ballot in the presidential primary.
Since the Atlanta rally, which he did not attend, he has been polite but firm. “My focus is on winning this November and saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats—not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans, or dwelling on the past,” he wrote on X, asking Mr Trump to “do the same”.
At a conservative conference in Atlanta days later he reiterated his pledge to use his political machine to turn out Republican voters and help Mr Trump win Georgia (without mentioning him by name). Nonetheless he alluded to Mr Trump’s barbs, joking about the two “big storms” that came through the state that week—one caused by the man at the top of his party’s ticket, the other a tropical hurricane. Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, reckons that Mr Kemp will not actively campaign for Mr Trump this autumn, but instead distance himself as he did from Herschel Walker, a Trump-endorsed Senate candidate who lost to Raphael Warnock in the midterms.
Pundits suspect that Mr Trump will struggle to redeem himself from his Georgia snafu. At a Chamber of Commerce event in Atlanta, where Mr Kemp won standing ovations, business leaders who had previously backed Mr Trump talked about following in Ms Kemp’s footsteps and writing their governor’s name on their ballots in November. Others loyal to Mr Kemp might just stay at home—as they did after Mr Trump complained about how “rigged” Georgia’s elections were on the eve of two run-offs that handed Democrats control of the Senate in 2021.
Swing voters want Mr Trump to show some restraint, respect and appreciation “for the kind of governance in Georgia that they’ve been blessed by”, says Cole Muzio, a Christian lobbyist close to Mr Kemp. “Georgia is not a state that wants to vote for Kamala Harris,” he believes. “But they will vote for Kamala Harris if Donald Trump cannot clear a basic hurdle of showing that he cares more about cause and country than his personal grievances.”■