Russia’s ‘priority’ friendship with China, beyond raises concerns over regional insecurity

Within days of the meeting in Kazakhstan, Russia’s ambassador to China Igor Morgulov accused the West of “constant blackmailing and pressure”, adding that a unipolar world order which he said had long served the interests of the “collective West”, was “receding into the past.”

Shortly after, navies of both Russia and China began the “Joint Sea-2024” exercise in the South China Sea following an exercise that simulated the search and arrest of “suspicious vessels”.

Earlier on, both sides also conducted a joint military drill focused on cross-border terrorism in a river near the Heilongjiang bridge linking the Russian city of Blagoveshchensk with the Chinese city of Heihe.

02:25

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold talks on SCO sidelines in Kazakhstan

Unsurprisingly, during Nato’s annual summit in Washington, US President Joe Biden warned China of a “price” over its assistance to Russia and its more assertive posture in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

A week later, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Beijing would likely face more sanctions soon if it did not reconsider its membership on “Team Russia”, adding that screws might be tightened to apply sanctions against specific entities and individuals, including in China.

Leaders of a congressional committee on China also called on the White House to clarify whether Moscow was sharing information with Beijing on how to neutralise US weapons used in the Ukraine war.

But this robust response might be overturned if Donald Trump returns to the White House, as the former president and his running mate J.D. Vance are expected to show more “flexibility” towards Russia.

This would likely come as music to Putin’s ears. Despite being cast as an international pariah, he has recently met with several leaders, including North Korea’s Kim Jong-un in June, where the two countries signed a new comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.

Growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is expected to cause anxieties in Beijing, according to US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who said that China is likely worried that Pyongyang “will be somehow encouraged to take provocative steps that could lead to a crisis in Northeast Asia”.

11:00

Why Russia might be warming to China’s presence in Central Asia

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba chimed in this week, saying he hoped China would play a constructive role in regional and global security and warning the Russia-North Korea agreement was likely to disrupt the security balance in the region.

Putin also made his way to Vietnam, where apart from meeting President To Lam, both sides also pledged to restart arms sales. Moscow is expected to offer long-term contracts to retain its traditional customers.

The Russian leader also touched base with visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is keen to reaffirm New Delhi’s “special and privileged” status with its long-standing ally.

Even with a war waging in Ukraine, Russia has not lost sight of its ambitions elsewhere, including developing an Arctic sea route that could almost halve the time to travel between Europe and Asia.

Moscow has also resolved to forge closer ties with developing countries in the Global South, turning to multilateral platforms such as the Brics group of emerging economies.

60-Second Catch-up

Russia and China should join forces in Southeast Asia, Lavrov tells Wang amid Asean summit.

Xi Jinping holds talks with Vladimir Putin on SCO sidelines in Kazakhstan.

Biden warns China’s Xi of ‘price’ over aid to Russia as Nato summit ends.

Video: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold talks on SCO sidelines in Kazakhstan.

Xi Jinping warns SCO to ‘resist external interference’ in latest veiled swipe at US.

Video: Why Russia might be warming to China’s presence in Central Asia.

Opinion: China watches as Indian and Russian leaders take their diplomatic dance.

China and Russia hold drills as Japan and Nato raise alarm over Ukraine.

Opinion: How China can respond to new headache of Russia-North Korea treaty.

Chinese senior officials’ South Korea trip to coincide with Putin’s Pyongyang visit.

Opinion: Why warmer North Korea-Russia ties could be trouble for Northeast Asia.

In China, Ukraine’s top diplomat signals readiness to resume negotiations with Russia.

Deep dives

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hit out at US in China-Russia show of solidarity

A day of pomp and talks ends with a salvo aimed squarely at American efforts to divide the world into blocs•The two leaders offer each other support on core issues amid questions about just how far their ‘no-limits’ ties can go

When Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet in Beijing for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first international trip of his new term, the two leaders sought to not only show support for each other but also present a united front to the rest of the world.

In a lengthy joint statement signed after a meeting with senior officials and then talks with a small group of close aides, the two leaders reaffirmed that each country was the other’s “priority partner”.

Modi’s Russia visit tactic to boost security amid India-China tensions: experts

Modi’s visit has helped delay Russia’s slide towards China, analysts say, as growing Moscow-Beijing ties a concern for India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia has raised alarm among Western allies, but analysts say it is part of New Delhi’s strategy to shore up its own security amid increased tensions with China.

Modi’s visit dealt a blow to the West’s efforts to isolate Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. That it coincided with Russian military strikes destroying a children’s hospital in Kyiv drew sharp rebukes from Western commentators.

Xi Jinping warns SCO to ‘resist external interference’ in veiled swipe at US

Chinese leader issues plea for unity, warning members they faced a joint ‘threat’ from the ‘cold war mindset’

Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to “resist external interference” in a veiled reference to pressure from the United States and its allies.

Xi was speaking in Kazakhstan at the annual summit of the SCO, a regional economic and security bloc largely driven by China and Russia that has seen its remit grow in the two decades or so since its formation.

Why the Tumen River border could test ties between China, Russia and North Korea

Using the waterway to reach the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, is a ‘dream’ for China but neighbours fear they could lose out by opening it up

China has been trying to persuade Russia and North Korea to open a stretch of the Tumen River to Chinese cargo shipping for decades, a step that would provide direct access to the sea from the landlocked northeastern province of Jilin.

Although its hopes may have been raised by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments following his recent visits to Beijing and Pyongyang the issue could still test the strength of the three-way relations.

North Korea’s shifting satellite allegiance signals China’s waning influence

Appearing to lead ‘axis’ including Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran does not appeal to Beijing, analysts say after Putin and Kim sign treaty

Pyongyang’s recent switch from a Chinese to a Russian satellite to broadcast its state television highlights Beijing’s weakening influence over North Korea, analysts say.

Closer ties between Pyongyang and Moscow could be a “burden” for Beijing, which does not want to be portrayed as the “leader of an axis,” they said.

Can China and Russia overlook Central Asia rivalry for SCO goal to counter West?

Both nations want Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to counter Western hegemony, but rivalry over influence in Russia’s ‘backyard’ might be a concern

China and Russia’s bid to hold up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a counterweight to the West has sparked concerns that Beijing’s economic scale might overshadow Moscow’s agenda for Central Asia, long considered a Russian “backyard”.

However, observers expect Russia to focus more on cooperation than rivalry with China, given common security concerns in the Eurasian hinterland and Moscow’s eastward economic shift after its invasion of Ukraine.

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un could chart own path away from idolising forebears

Events used to lionise Kim’s grandfather and father have been reduced, a move that could put the focus on Kim’s own achievements and policies instead•With Kim Jong-un’s legitimacy underpinned by narratives surrounding his forebears, dismissing them ‘amounts to his own dismissal’, some analysts warn

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to be orchestrating a departure from the long-standing personality cult of his ancestors as he forges a distinct ideological path that would place the focus on himself and unfettered by blood ties with the South, according to observers.

This shift is perceived to be marked by the subtle rebranding of significant holidays commemorating his grandfather and father and a reduction of overt displays of reverence for them, as reported by the South’s Unification Ministry.

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.

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