In a dangerous world, comfortable old Europe finds itself in an alarming position. In Ukraine the continent’s bloodiest war since 1945 rages on, while Russia poses a menace from the Baltics to cyberspace. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he could undermine nato, the foundation of European security. The continent’s economy is vulnerable to shocks caused by industrial policy and protectionism elsewhere. Eurosceptic populists are riding high in the polls.
To face these perils Europe needs, at a minimum, coherent leadership at the eu level. It also needs to keep extremists out of power. Whether it succeeds rests in part on the choices of three women: Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, and Marine Le Pen, the leading French populist.
Start with Mrs von der Leyen, who has led the eu’s executive arm since 2019 and is standing for a second term. She deserves one. She has done a good job: marshalling the eu’s strong collective response to Vladimir Putin’s aggression, and helping to deepen European integration at a crucial time, for example by pushing a ground-breaking programme to issue common debt. A cool-headed German conservative, she has also put the European Commission at the heart of decision-making when Franco-German relations have been prickly. Given the threats, the need for strong, unified leadership has never been greater.
To win a second term, she first needs the support of the eu’s 27 national leaders. Then she must obtain a majority in the European Parliament, which is holding elections on June 6th-9th, with over 350m citizens eligible to vote. In theory she will enjoy the backing of the conservative, liberal and socialist groupings that form the political establishment. But because politics has become so fragmented, these three groupings are collectively projected to win only a slim majority of seats, and some of their members of parliament may break ranks. Mrs von der Leyen barely scraped through her first vote, in 2019. This time victory is not assured.
That brings us to Ms Meloni, Italy’s prime minister since 2022 and the leader of the hard-right Brothers of Italy party, which has gone from being an insurgent force to running the country. It is expected to do well in the eu elections. With its support Mrs von der Leyen could stand a better chance of winning a parliamentary majority for a second term in the top eu job. She has been busy courting the Italian. “I have been working very well with Giorgia Meloni,” she said on May 23rd.
Those words, and the idea of any kind of pact that includes the Brothers, have outraged liberals and establishment figures, including some in the ruling Social Democratic Party in Germany and Emmanuel Macron’s party in France. For them Ms Meloni is beyond the pale. She pals around with Viktor Orban, Hungary’s strongman, and other unsavoury types. She lends credence to racist conspiracy theories like the “great replacement”. She has likened the eu to the Soviet Union. In short, she is exactly the kind of hard-right figure who must be excluded from decision-making, many grumble.
Ms Meloni certainly has many objectionable policies and qualities. Nonetheless, to rule out working with her as a matter of principle would be myopic. Her track record is not that of a political arsonist. She has made common cause with Mrs von der Leyen on matters such as illegal immigration; the two women have paid joint visits to north African countries, striking deals with autocrats to stem the flow. She has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine, unlike some of her fellows on the populist right. Her party fights culture wars at home, but on security and the economy she has run Italy as a pragmatist. She should not be shut out of the political mainstream.
What is more, striking a deal with her could have an added advantage: splitting the populist right between its more moderate and extreme elements. That is where Ms Le Pen comes in. Her party, National Rally, is expected to do well in the European election, too. Ms Le Pen has tried to rebrand herself as a mainstream figure, but don’t be fooled. She is a firebrand with a long history of xenophobia and sucking up to Russia. She wants to create a mega-group of nationalists that could yank Europe hard to the right. To do this, she wants to team up with Ms Meloni.
Far better to lure Ms Meloni towards the centre instead. That would hobble Ms Le Pen’s plan and fragment the hard right. Already the Alternative for Germany has partially imploded after its lead European candidate seemed to make light of Nazi crimes. Disempowering Ms Le Pen might also diminish her appeal in France, where her party leads the polls ahead of national elections in 2027. The prospect of a President Le Pen is unnerving.
After the European election result, the haggling could drag on for months and will test Mrs von der Leyen’s skill. The stakes are high. One path could deliver stable leadership at the eu level, and show how moderates can grapple intelligently with the populist right. The question is no longer whether the populists can be contained. It is how to respond to their rise. Ms Meloni is keeping her cards close to her chest. But it would be odd if someone who is clearly more interested in power than posturing were to consign herself to Europe’s margins.
Triple trouble
The alternative path could be disastrous. European politics has become so fragmented that it is conceivable that no parliamentary majority will be found for Mrs von der Leyen or any other candidate for the commission presidency. That would spark a constitutional crisis at the worst time, as Ukraine is embattled and a possible Trump presidency looms. Furthermore, if Ms Meloni sees nothing to be gained from working with the centre, she may be tempted to work with Ms Le Pen. If they make the wrong choice, Europe’s centrists could destabilise the eu and help create what they have long feared: a united, pan-continental far-right movement. To avoid that, it would be worth dealing with Ms Meloni. ■
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