Only connecting with voters can stop Europe’s populist tide

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

Much has been written about why voters seem likely to turn to populists in greater numbers and shun established mainstream parties in forthcoming elections — including those for the European Parliament.

Commentators have been citing almost everything as the cause — from inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze to immigration and rising income disparity, from identity politics and white male resentment to the disorienting pace of cultural and social change, and fury about shabby corruption in parts of Europe and Latin America.

But while all these may well be factors to varying degrees, they’re all part and parcel of something arguably much bigger, something more elemental: A backlash rooted in overall desperation, compounded by many voters’ perception — especially in rural heartlands and small towns — that their grievances are shrugged off. Not only that, but when they have the temerity to raise them, they’re patronized by rarefied politicians with disengaged talk of instruments, competencies and trilogues, further adding to the disconnect.

These voters feel they’re only taken seriously when they take to the streets in sufficient numbers, pressing their case by clogging highways, choking capitals and city centers. Only then do incumbent politicians start running scared — like with the yellow vest agitation in France.

Take, for example, the farmer protests that have spread like wildfire across the Continent in recent weeks. Farmers in Poland blocked cheaper grain arriving from neighboring Ukraine, their counterparts in Germany jammed highways for a week to protest net-zero reductions in subsidies for diesel, and French farmers besieged Paris to vent against cheap food imports and the forest of regulations they’re forced to navigate. Italy, Spain and Romania, among others, have seen similar unheaval.

“It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place,” the Red Queen tells Alice in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass.” And indeed, many farmers feel they’ve been shoved through the looking glass. In fact, in the case of Europe’s farmers, the faster they run the quicker they seem to go backward.

While most sectors saw sharp wage increases between 2022 and 2023, farming did not. Rather, the average income of European small farmers fell by 12–22 percent, according to German multinational financial services company Allianz. “Farmers have insufficient bargaining power. At the same time, they are faced with increasing regulation and rising costs for energy, fertilizers, transport, biodiversity, water quality, climate and farm workers,” noted Allianz’s Johan Geeroms.

Add to that the fact that farmers are being asked to reconcile the impossible: “On the one hand, greening and, on the other, opening up to a globalized world that is not subject to the same strict environmental rules everywhere,” Geeroms said.

Not that the European Commission advertises all that. Instead, it blithely chose to lead an analysis it published last November with this: “Farm income per worker has grown steadily over time,” noting it was 56 percent higher in 2021 compared to 2013.

And maybe so, but that’s mainly a reflection of the dramatic decrease in farm employment and the relentless disappearance of small- and medium-sized farms — which is only adding to rural areas hollowing out. Unable to cope with the challenges, over 4 million farms disappeared from 2005 to 2016.  

Moreover, in 2019, a parliamentary policy department crowed there had been an “impressive 30% decrease in the last fifteen years” in agricultural “work units,” falling from 13.1 million in 2003 to 9.1 million in 2018. Though maybe not so impressive for the millions of farm workers who lost their jobs to the increasing dominance of massive factory farms owned by large-scale agribusiness conglomerates, which sweep up around 80 percent of direct payment subsidies. Those vast farms can pay their workers higher salaries.

Addressing the issue, last month, the Commission finally launched its “Strategic Dialogue on the future of EU agriculture.” And when announcing the exercise in September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said its intention was to foster “more dialogue and less polarisation” and involve everyone “from small traditional producers of organic food to large wheat producers.” The discussions should examine how to support rural communities and ensure a fair standard of living for them, as well as support agriculture “within the boundaries of our planet and its ecosystem,” she announced.

Many small farmers would say such a discussion is long overdue, but they also remain skeptical they will be listened to — or whether it will improve their lot if they are. And their doubts wouldn’t be misplaced.

Hence, the conclusion some are drawing that it is protests that get results.

Daunted by the spread of the farm protests, the Commission has already dropped key passages from a new 2040 climate proposal on cutting greenhouse gas pollution, excising recommendations for changes in citizen behavior, like eating less meat, as well as a push to end fossil fuel subsidies. Several national governments have also fallen over themselves to placate farmers — though whether they’ll continue to do so after elections is another matter.

Predictably, and understandably, climate activists are railing against these U-turns, bewailing the backtracking. For example, while acknowledging the plight of farmers, environmental activist and commentator Isabel Schatzschneider,  drew attention to how the “far right” has been stoking the agitation with falsehoods and misinformation.

“Protecting European democracy requires a resolute stand against the far right and its alliance with aggravated farmers. Only by prioritizing climate action can Europe hope to safeguard its values and protect itself from the insidious influence of far-right ideologies, which thrive on misinformation, hatred and a blatant disregard for the environmental challenges that endanger us all,” she wrote.

And caving is, indeed, risky — it smacks of panic and the same wretched opportunism populists display all too frequently. But it’s disingenuous to disparage farmers as some unwitting agents of the hard right — it’s also exactly the type of rhetoric that will boost the populist vote.

So, why should politicians worry this much about a sector that represents such a tiny share of the EU’s economy? For one, it’s because small farms create jobs and wealth for their communities, helping them thrive and reducing pressure on young people to leave. If eased into it and assisted they could become climate sensitive.

Farming also has an outsized electoral impact. Last year’s Dutch elections dramatically demonstrated this when the the Farmer-Citizen Movement — founded less than four years prior — won the most seats in the senate. And Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni unbuckling Italy’s so-called red belt — formerly the country’s most reliably left-leaning regions — had much to do with rural voters feeling overlooked as well.

Finally, farmers are canaries in the coal mine. Unheeding them and their communities is reflective of a snootiness that many of those who are left behind or are falling behind elsewhere sense is the prevalent attitude among established politicians. The rush to net zero, and the subsequent failure to count and moderate its costs for already struggling households, is exhausting voters.

As this column has noted before, dismissive centrist politicians need to connect — not patronize or disparage. But all too often, they can’t see the wood for the trilogues.