“A big part of it is the arrogance of power,” the EU official continued. “She mistakenly thought she could get away with everything. So some smaller mistakes are now being used against her.” Like other officials quoted in this article, the EU official was granted anonymity to speak freely about the powerful German politician within the Brussels bubble.
At the heart of the matter, there are two prime forces that could torpedo her in the post-electoral horse-trading.
France — whose relations with Germany are rocky — is still highly ambiguous about its support, probably to extract concessions, though it could spy a late opportunity to rejig the top table. If she passes that potential hurdle of dissent from Paris, she will also have to worry about whether she can secure confirmation from the new-look European Parliament, in which the far-right is likely to be a larger player than today. Even the support from her own center-right European People’s Party looks lukewarm.
The prospect of an upset only seems to be growing after a series of a series of slip ups in recent weeks, stressed EU officials and diplomats. That’s quite a turn-around from the beginning of the year, when she had seemed rock solid.
“Von der Leyen’s periodic missteps, from Pfizergate to her trip to Israel, are taking on new meaning as we get closer to the election,” said Alberto Alemanno, a professor of law at HEC business school in Paris. “They acquire a pattern.”
“What this boils down to is that we are moving away from TINA – there is no alternative – to a situation which is more fluid, and where we are essentially opening Pandora’s box,” he added.
Since then, there’s been mounting pushback against von der Leyen’s authority.
First, a cross-party initiative in the European Parliament — which included von der Leyen’s own EPP — legally challenged the Commission’s decision to grant Hungary €10 billion in EU money, which was frozen over the country’s rule of law issues.
Rule of law issues — a topic where the EPP is seen as weak — have been a point of contention between von der Leyen and the European Parliament, whose votes she needs for a second term.
Von der Leyen also faced an internal rebellion by four of her top commissioners — from the social democrat and liberal camps — after awarding a lucrative envoy role to European lawmaker Markus Pieper, who belongs to her German conservative party.
The so-called “Piepergate” affair came days after POLITICO revealed that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office had opened an investigation into her highly contentious (and maddeningly opaque) use of text messages to negotiate major vaccine purchase contracts during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In navigating these crises, she sometimes muscled aside her commissioners or national governments, leading to grumblings which can cost her when she has to be nominated again by European leaders (and then confirmed by the European Parliament.)
With two months to go before the elections, von der Leyen has time to change the perception, for example, by touting her legacy. She has emerged as the most powerful Commission president since Jacques Delors, rolling out emergency measures to protect Europe through the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron, however, who was key to landing her the job in 2019, has been ambiguous in his support — in what seems a classic power move to have as much leverage as possible.
While Germany has no other choice than to back the former German defense minister for a second term — despite that her party is not part of the ruling coalition — France is playing hard to get.
In an interview with POLITICO, the head of French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew group in the European Parliament, Valérie Hayer, declined to endorse von der Leyen for a second term. “I won’t rule out voting for her again, I won’t rule out not voting for her again,” she said.
Several EU diplomats interpret the signals from Paris as a way to derive concessions from von der Leyen for her second term.
“The French don’t want Ursula walking on a red carpet with flowers thrown on her at the June European Council,” said another EU diplomat.
“The idea of a German Commission president who can do whatever she wants during a second mandate is a nightmare for them.”
Macron’s support is key for von der Leyen.
To win a second term, she will need to convince a qualified majority of EU leaders at the European Council table to back her. While she’s likely to get a nod from Europe’s 12 conservative leaders, it remains to be seen how much support she can rally beyond her party.
Hungary and Slovakia are highly critical toward the Commission’s policies, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly been at odds with the Berlaymont over the Israel-Hamas war. Von der Leyen’s resolute support for Israel triggered a backlash from Spain, Ireland, Belgium and voices across the European left.
The potentially fatal challenge however is set to be the European Parliament. In 2019, she was placed in office with the support of the EU’s self-described pro-European parties: the conservative European People’s Party, the Socialists and the liberal Renew group. That landed her only a narrow majority: 383 votes, slightly above the minimum of 374. With the far right surging across Europe, von der Leyen could struggle to repeat that win.
As of June 10, von der Leyen will have to start courting the newly elected European lawmakers to secure their votes. “She will be the object of huge pressure by lawmakers to win their support,” said a second EU official.