Georgia’s government cosies up to Russia
THERE ARE no Russian tanks rumbling towards Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, or Russian missiles flying over it—both things that happened during a five-day incursion in 2008 when the Kremlin attacked its former imperial vassal. But Georgia is still in mortal peril. The struggle between Soviet past and possible European future has already devastated Ukraine, and plunged Russia itself into a state of dictatorship. Now it has spread to the Caucasus, threatening Georgia’s democracy, its independence and its Euro-Atlantic calling.
Once considered a beacon of democracy and a staunch Western ally, Georgia is being pushed into Russia’s sphere of influence and away from the West, not by Russian soldiers but by its own ruler, a reclusive businessman named Bidzina Ivanishvili. He made his billions in Russia in the 1990s and has ruled Georgia since 2012, largely from behind the scenes through the party he founded, Georgian Dream.
For ten years, Mr Ivanishvili kept up a pretence of democracy and trod a careful line between Russia and the West. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, though, he has thrown in his lot with Russia and has openly turned against the West, which he calls a “party of global war”. Georgia has reopened direct flights to Russia and helps it evade sanctions, as shown by increased trade flows. At the same time its helmeted police and vigilante thugs assault the young Westernised Georgians who have taken to the streets in protest. So far, the government has had the upper hand.
The trigger for the current crisis was a menacing law, nicknamed the “Russia law” by its critics, copied from Mr Putin’s lexicon. It requires any organisation that gets more than 20% of its funding from Western sources to register as an “agent of foreign influence”. On May 18th the law, which had easily passed through parliament, was vetoed by Salome Zourabichvili, Georgia’s president, for “contradicting our constitutions and all European standards”. But on May 28th Georgia’s parliament voted to override that veto, in good time for parliamentary elections in October.
Georgia’s democracy has been grounded not in strong institutions, competing political parties or an independent judiciary, but in its vibrant civil society, including the media and the often Western-funded institutions that provide checks and balances on political power. The law will force many of them to restrict their operations, shut down or leave the country, for fear of stigma and “harassing and costly audits”, as the Venice Commission, a committee of European lawyers, puts it. Those affected could include election monitors and pollsters such as the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, two important American NGOs. The law could also make it easier for Mr Ivanishvili to manipulate election results.
Besides the foreign-agent law, another is in the offing that could turn Georgia into a tax haven where cronies of Mr Ivanishvili could bank assets from all over the world, including Russia. The combination amounts to state capture by Mr Ivanishvili and turns Georgia into a private operation, says David Zedelashvili, a Tbilisi lawyer. The laws also make Georgia’s path towards NATO and EU membership difficult or impossible, even though both goals are enshrined in its constitution.
No bloodbath yet
The protests, some attended by tens of thousands of people, have stayed peaceful and gone unheeded. Georgia’s youth has no appetite for a revolution. The EU flags they wave and the Georgian songs they sing are poor protection against the police, who have attacked them with tear-gas and truncheons, or thugs who follow them and beat them up outside their homes.
Mr Ivanishvili is equally undeterred by Western criticism. On May 14th Jim O’Brien, an American assistant secretary of state, flew to Tbilisi; Mr Ivanishvili refused to meet him. America has introduced visa restrictions for Georgians who are responsible for the foreign-agent law and is reviewing its financial assistance to Georgia, including to its armed forces.
America faces a dilemma. Georgia has been its ally, its soldiers fighting alongside American ones in Iraq and Afghanistan. For all of Mr Ivanishvili’s drift away from the West, Georgia’s military and intelligence services are keener than ever on their ties with America, notes a Western official.
Turning Georgia decisively against the West would be a victory for Mr Putin and a humiliation for NATO as it celebrates its 75th anniversary later this year. But Mr Putin’s plans for Georgia extend beyond symbolism. He has designated the Russian-controlled breakaway region of Abkhazia as a new naval base for its Black Sea fleet that has been pushed out of Crimea by Ukrainian forces.
Mr Putin may be aiming to create a form of confederation between Georgia and its two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which he also controls. The idea was tested (unsuccessfully) when the Kremlin first fomented conflict in Donbas in 2014, then tried to push it back into Ukraine as a way to secure a veto over its European trajectory. Speaking on Georgia’s independence day on May 26th, Irakli Kobakhidze, the Georgian Dream prime minister who is driving his country towards the Kremlin, promised that by 2030 “Georgians should be living alongside their Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers and sisters.” Pledging to defend Georgia’s sovereignty, Georgian Dream is making great strides to achieve the opposite. ■
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