Israel is keeping open the nuclear option
WHEN IRAN fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1st, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and at least some of his generals, spied an opportunity to do what the country’s air force had practised for decades—bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. The armada of more than 100 Israeli planes that flew east on October 26th instead hit only military facilities. But in doing so they may have disarmed Iran and paved the way for deeper and more ambitious attacks in the future.
Iran has long operated four batteries of the Russian-made S-300 air-defence system. In April, after another Iranian missile barrage, Israel neutralised one by destroying its target-engagement radar. Israeli sources suggest that the three remaining systems were taken out on October 26th. Satellite images seen by The Economist and analysed by Chris Biggers, an imagery expert who used to work for America’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, show evidence of a destroyed radar at Eslamshahr to the south-west of Tehran. Israel also hit a variant of the long-range Iranian-made “Ghadir” radar at Ilam on the country’s western border, says Mr Biggers.
The strike on October 26th used some stealthy F-35 jets to penetrate Iranian airspace. A larger number of non-stealthy F-15 and F-16 jets fired long-range ballistic missiles from Iraqi airspace. A strike on Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites would require much more ordnance dropped from closer to the target.
That is now easier to achieve. Iran does have other air-defence systems. But these are less capable and have shorter ranges: an indigenous “Talaash” battery was present at an oil refinery in Abadan; the refinery was hit anyway. Russia, which faces a growing barrage of Ukrainian drones and missiles, is unlikely to be in a position to supply new radars.
As well as mauling Iranian air defences, Israel also inflicted serious damage on Iranian drone and missile production sites. Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London, points to the TIECO factory in Shamsabad, which made mixing equipment used to produce rocket propellant, and a propellant plant in Parchin. Also hit was the Sharud missile complex, which made missile boosters and which Mr Hinz says was “pivotal” to the development of Iran’s long-range missiles.
All that will make it harder for Iran to replenish the 300-odd ballistic missiles expended in April and October. It will also complicate resupplying allies like Hizbullah, whose missile arsenal has been largely destroyed over the past two months, and Russia, which has sought Iranian missiles for use in Ukraine.
The strike at Parchin was notable for another reason. Israel promised the Biden administration—which supplied a THAAD air-defence system to protect Israel from any Iranian reprisals—that it would not mount a major attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, an act that could trigger a full-scale war days before America’s presidential election. But Israel could not resist making a small symbolic flourish.
Israeli missiles appear to have struck a building known as Taleghan 2, according to the Institute for Science and International Security, another think-tank. It is thought to have housed an explosives-compression chamber that, a little over two decades ago, was used in Iran’s then active nuclear-weapons programme. The site had been dormant for eight years, says Decker Eveleth of CNA, another think-tank. That Israel bombed it regardless is hard to interpret as anything other than a threat against other nuclear sites. The fact that many of Israel’s strikes could be seen from Tehran drove home the message to Iranians.
Israel would probably need America’s assistance in a full-fledged assault on Iranian nuclear sites, not least given the number of munitions involved, which would tax even Israel’s large and capable air force. It may yet get it. America’s Central Command worked exceptionally closely with Israel in planning the latest strikes, according to Israeli security officials. On October 4th Donald Trump encouraged Israel to go after nuclear facilities: “That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Should Mr Trump be re-elected on November 5th, Mr Netanyahu might decide that the moment is ripe for such an attack. Iran would now find it much harder to parry it. ■
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