What does Modi 3.0 look like?

For mANY Indians, the general election result in June was a stunning repudiation of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. But to hear him speak of it, that isn’t the case. He insists that, despite the loss of his party’s parliamentary majority, which has forced him to rely on coalition partners, the vote was for “continuity”. He has barely changed his cabinet since cobbling together a government. He has doubled down on pledges to turn India into a developed country by 2047, the centenary of its independence. And his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is campaigning for imminent regional elections on a familiar platform of development and Hindu nationalism.

The new government also claims to have completed a plan for its first 100 days that Mr Modi and his ministers started to compile as soon as campaigning started. Mr Modi ordered all ministries to report their progress, details of which were published on September 17th, the 100th day of his third term and also his birthday. They included approving infrastructure projects worth $39bn, expanding an affordable-housing programme and launching a new national pension scheme.

On the surface, Modi 3.0 may look much like his first two terms. Dig deeper, however, and a change becomes apparent. Mr Modi’s new government has, in fact, withdrawn a series of politically important initiatives under pressure from an emboldened opposition and from pressure groups. India’s courts have been showing their mettle, too, challenging the government or the BJP in a number of high-profile cases. And, even within his own political camp, Mr Modi is facing demands to adjust his leadership style, as well as some policies.

Further hazards loom. The BJP faces bruising contests in all five regional elections due in the next six months. One in Jammu & Kashmir, starting on September 18th, is the first since Mr Modi scrapped the Muslim-majority region’s semi-autonomous status in 2019. The BJP may struggle to retain control of Haryana, which votes on October 5th, and Maharashtra, where a November poll is likely. The opposition, meanwhile, is likely to hold on to Jharkhand and Delhi in elections due by January and February, respectively.

To Mr Modi’s supporters, his recent record demonstrates sound leadership. They say he has learned from the election result and is willing to consult more broadly, even as he advances his reform agenda. He is still popular, they add, and deserves credit as the first Indian politician to win three consecutive terms as prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s and 1960s. Besides, the BJP controls many more seats in parliament than the Congress party, its main national rival, did while leading coalition governments from 2004 to 2014.

But can Mr Modi really turn from strongman to consensus-builder? He has never had to share power before. While campaigning he suggested he could be of divine birth and sidelined many political allies. This led to some unusually public criticism from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu-nationalist organisation from which the BJP grew. And even if he makes the transition, a more collaborative approach might force him to scrap some promised reforms and offer some expensive handouts.

The compromise candidate?

Mr Modi may yet master consultative government, ultimately leading to better policymaking, says Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research, a think-tank in Delhi. But results will be slower. And early signs suggest he has yet to adjust fully: he could, for example, have consulted more broadly on the recently withdrawn initiatives before putting them forward. Failure to adapt, meanwhile, could lead to further electoral losses and even a challenge to Mr Modi’s leadership from within.

One of the government’s first climb-downs came in early August, when it referred new legislation on Muslim charitable endowments to a joint parliamentary committee. That was remarkable because Mr Modi rammed most laws through parliament in the past decade. Opposition and Muslim leaders denounced the bill as a curb on religious freedom. More tellingly, one of Mr Modi’s key coalition partners also backed referral to the committee.

Soon after that came a U-turn on a broadcasting-services bill. The government published one draft in November, aiming to tighten regulation of digital and other media. A beefed-up version was then circulated among stakeholders in July but suddenly recalled in mid-August following objections from many. They feared it would stifle social-media platforms such as YouTube, now widely used by Mr Modi’s critics. A new draft may not appear for two years, people involved say.

Then, on August 20th, the government withdrew an advertisement inviting people from outside the civil service to apply for senior bureaucratic posts. The advertisement was part of a Modi initiative to bring expertise into government. But it, too, caused an outcry as no posts were reserved for lower Hindu castes and other minorities, as is usually the case under an affirmative-action scheme. The episode sparked fresh calls for a national caste census (the opposition had pledged one while campaigning for the general election). The BJP has long opposed such an exercise but may be preparing another U-turn: the RSS voiced support for a caste census for the first time on September 2nd.

That may appease some lower-caste voters but it could alienate upper-caste Hindus, many of whom are BJP stalwarts. If a caste census is conducted, its results could undermine BJP claims about improved social mobility. And such policy reversals come at the expense of Mr Modi’s public image as a muscular, infallible leader. “We have finished Modi psychologically,” Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition, said on September 4th. “I sit in front of him in parliament and I know his confidence is gone.”

Another boost for the opposition came on September 13th when the Supreme Court granted bail to Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and leader of an opposition party. That will allow him to contest the Delhi election more aggressively. It is also the court’s latest move to rein in investigative agencies that have targeted several opposition leaders. Mr Kejriwal was arrested in March on corruption charges that he says are politically motivated. Since his release, he has resigned as Delhi’s chief minister and called for its election to be brought forward to November.

Although India’s courts are still susceptible to government pressure, the Supreme Court has been more assertive in other politically charged cases, too. In July it blocked three BJP-ruled states from requiring shops and eateries on a Hindu pilgrimage route to display their owners’ names (a policy clearly aimed at Muslim owners). In September the court also warned state governments against demolishing the property of those accused of crimes before they are convicted. Such demolitions often target Muslims in BJP-ruled states.

From 100 days to five years

As for Mr Modi’s 100-day plan, he has hit many of his targets. But he had to adjust several parts. One omission was a proposal to privatise at least two state-owned companies. That apparently faced opposition from some coalition members. He also added new details, including a review of a scheme to recruit soldiers for fixed four-year terms. That scheme was designed to lower pension costs, which absorb more than a fifth of military spending. But it was hated by recruits, who were previously hired for at least 15 years with a full pension. Another of Mr Modi’s coalition partners demanded a review.

None of this spells disaster for Mr Modi. It is early days, and he has scored some important wins, quickly winding up government-forming talks with coalition partners and then tweaking his budget to allocate more money to job creation. India is still the world’s fastest-growing major economy: on September 3rd the World Bank upgraded its GDP forecast for this financial year from 6.6% to 7%. Still, Modi 3.0 clearly needs more than continuity. It demands compromise, too. ■

Correction: An earlier version of this article suggested Mr Modi leads a minority government. In fact India is governed by a coalition. Sorry.

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