Rwanda tightens its grip over eastern Congo

Rulers of the Democratic Republic of Congo have rarely, if ever, fully controlled the east of Africa’s second-largest country. Kinshasa, its capital, is 1,500km from the provinces (South Kivu, North Kivu and Ituri) that border the other Great Lakes countries (Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda). The advance of M23, a Rwandan-backed rebel group, starkly reveals the Congolese state’s weakness. The region may be in for a third instalment of the wars that have blighted it since the 1990s.

On February 16th soldiers from M23 marched single-file through the streets of Bukavu, eastern Congo’s second-largest city. The beleaguered remains of the Congolese army had retreated without a fight. Rebel fighters toting grenade-launchers and machine-guns took triumphant selfies in the city’s main square.

The capture of Bukavu, South Kivu’s capital, came three weeks after M23 took Goma, its counterpart in North Kivu and the east’s largest city, with the help of Rwandan troops. The unilateral ceasefire the group declared amid African and Western condemnation of its seizure of Goma lasted about as long as it takes to reload a machine-gun. Soon M23 was on the march through South Kivu, supported by Rwanda’s Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, according to Western officials.

Rwanda, which has a territory 1/90th of Congo’s, now in effect controls all of Lake Kivu. Congo’s army has pulled out of the strategic airport of Kavumu, near Bukavu, alongside thousands of troops from its main ally in the region, Burundi. The loss of this airport is an enormous blow, as it cuts off the Congolese army’s supply route. “Soldiers are leaving on foot, the officers are leaving by boat,” said a Bukavu-based researcher, who declined to give his name for safety reasons. “There’s no more military logistics, no more resupply.”

In Kinshasa the mood is grim. International sanctions on Rwanda, long a Congolese demand, have not materialised. Recent summits of African leaders on eastern Congo have had no impact on the ground. Felix Tshisekedi, Congo’s president, has not addressed the nation since January 29th, when he vowed that a “vigorous and co-ordinated response” was under way. Western embassies in Kinshasa, including those of America and Britain, have evacuated most of their staff, fearing that the situation in the capital may deteriorate.

As if Mr Tshisekedi needed further reminding of his army’s weakness, on February 18th Ugandan troops were said to be in Bunia, the capital of Ituri. It is unclear if the Ugandans are there as friends or foes. In 2021 Mr Tshisekedi authorised Ugandan soldiers to enter Congo to help root out jihadists. But in the days before Ugandan troops entered Bunia the head of Uganda’s army, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, posted on social media that he planned to attack the city. Mr Kainerugaba, who is the son of Yoweri Museveni, Uganda’s president, is notorious for buffoonery. He once threatened to conquer Rome if Giorgia Meloni, now Italy’s prime minister, refused his bride price of 100 prize cows.

But Western officials are taking seriously the notion that Uganda may exploit Congo’s weakness. With M23 and Rwanda consolidating control over eastern Congo, the thinking goes, Uganda may move in to protect its own interests. This suggests the region could be in for a replay of the second Congo war of 1998-2003. Back then, Rwanda and Uganda sent their armies into Congo to vie for influence, with devastating effects on Congolese civilians.

One Bunia resident says the armed groups around the city are “on maximum alert, waiting for when the provocations start”. He adds: “We hope for calm, that’s our wish.” He is unlikely to get it. ■

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