Macron’s new coalition yanks France a step to the right
EUROPE IS A continent of coalition governments, painful to forge and fragile to maintain. Most European politicians are familiar with their challenges. For Michel Barnier’s new French government, however, which met for its first cabinet meeting on September 23rd, this form of rule is a baffling novelty. For the first time since France’s Fifth Republic was established in 1958, the country is now run by a minority coalition government formed by rival parties that stood against each other at legislative elections. Its survival depends on keeping its lumpy mix of centrists and right-wingers together, and the opposition against it divided.
Politically, the new government marks a distinct shift to the right, and this despite inconclusive legislative elections in July at which the left-wing alliance won the most seats (but not a majority). After two months of talks, President Emmanuel Macron finally asked Mr Barnier, a 73-year-old conservative and former Brexit negotiator, to form a broad “unifying” government. Despite the prime minister’s best efforts, however, he recruited only one figure from the left: Didier Migaud, a former Socialist deputy and ex-head of the national audit body, is the new justice minister. To the consternation of some centrists, Mr Barnier’s pick for interior minister is Bruno Retailleau, a right-wing family-values senator well known for his hard-line views on immigration. The cabinet has other right-wingers as well.
Such is the nature of coalitions of circumstance. But France is unfamiliar with them at the national level, and this one will take time to settle down. One left-leaning member of Mr Macron’s centrist parliamentary group has quit the group. Another deputy says that his ongoing support is “conditional”. Nor is there any formal coalition agreement. Mr Barnier is due to make the traditional prime minister’s speech to parliament outlining his agenda on October 1st. Until then, the best clue to the policy direction of the new government is its composition.
The coalition, unveiled on September 21st, is a mix of young and mostly untested centrists allied to Mr Macron and conservatives from the centre-right Republican party. It contains none of the heavyweight future presidential hopefuls from either side, a decision that Mr Barnier has implied was a deliberate choice to keep his team focused on their immediate task and not the presidential election in 2027.
Allies of Mr Macron have held onto the foreign and defence ministries, traditionally the president’s domain. Sébastien Lecornu remains at defence. Jean-Noël Barrot, the outgoing centrist Europe minister, has been promoted to foreign affairs. Benjamin Haddad, a young deputy who has pushed hard for more French support for Ukraine, has taken over as Europe minister.
On economic policy, there are some hints of continuity with Mr Macron’s business-friendly approach. Mr Barnier has named two little-known centrists as finance minister (Antoine Armand, aged just 33) and minister for the budget (Laurent Saint-Martin); the latter, unusually, will report directly to the prime minister rather than to the finance minister. On taking office, Mr Armand declared “our task is to make life easier for business.” Yet Mr Barnier has also said that he does not rule out raising taxes on “big multinationals” and “the wealthiest”. With a budget deficit heading for 5.6% of GDP this year, something has to give in next year’s budget, which is due to go to parliament on October 9th. Mr Barnier’s comments suggest that he may favour targeted tax increases rather than the spending cuts that France sorely needs. That will not please business. Markets seem unsure, too. On September 23rd the spread between French and German benchmark bond yields widened to 0.8 percentage points, its highest level since early August.
Mr Barnier appears at least to have won over the French at large. One poll shows he is the country’s most popular politician, with a 57% approval rating. His old-fashioned style seems to go down well; this week he ordered his ministers to avoid “showmanship”. Yet the new coalition has not resolved the underlying problem that led Mr Macron to dissolve parliament: it commands only 212 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. And both the opposition left-wing alliance and Marine Le Pen’s hard right are enraged that, even after voters rejected the centre and centre-right, they have ended up back in power.
Together, the left and the hard right have the numbers needed to bring down the new government via a parliamentary no-confidence motion, which needs an absolute majority of deputies to pass. The left has said that it will table such a motion after Mr Barnier’s opening speech. The hard right is unlikely to back it then; indeed Mr Barnier’s appointment was clinched by Ms Le Pen’s decision not to vote his government down immediately. Yet on the budget her party has made it clear that it will wait and see. As long as the opposition remains divided, Mr Barnier’s government is safe. The moment they decide to vote together, it will fall.■