THE APPOINTMENT of Michel Barnier, the European Union’s former chief Brexit negotiator, as France’s new prime minister on September 5th brings to an end two months of political wrangling and procrastination. President Emmanuel Macron announced the decision after a merry-go-round of talks with a succession of figures from across the political spectrum, in an effort to break the impasse generated by an inconclusive parliamentary election result in July. Mr Barnier’s selection closes one tense and heated chapter. But it opens another, which could be even more testing.

Aged 73, Mr Barnier is a veteran politician from the centre-right Republicans party, who has served in various Gaullist governments, including as foreign minister under President Jacques Chirac. A former European commissioner, he is best known in Britain for the tough stance he took negotiating on behalf of the EU the conditions for the country’s exit from the union. Among Brexiteers he won few friends; but he managed to keep the EU side together despite British efforts to play its members off against each other. With a stiff manner but a wry sense of humour, Mr Barnier is a no-nonsense, old-school politician—and over twice the age of Gabriel Attal, the centrist politician he replaces in the job.

Although his name has circulated in the background for weeks, Mr Barnier was not Mr Macron’s first choice. No political bloc commands a majority in the French parliament, or anything close to one, following legislative elections that ended on July 7th. The president has struggled to find a figure who enjoys enough cross-party support to be able to survive any attempt to bring down the government with a no-confidence motion. (A French prime minister does not need to pass a confirmation vote in parliament, but he or she can be kicked out by an absolute majority vote.) The two he considered most recently, Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Socialist prime minister, and Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, both ran the risk of a vote against them from Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally (RN), the third-biggest bloc in parliament.

Mr Barnier, however, who took a surprisingly hard line on immigration when running unsuccessfully in the Republicans’ presidential primary in 2021, does not seem to raise the same hackles on the hard right. After his nomination Ms Le Pen applauded the fact that Mr Barnier would at least treat her voters “with respect”. For Mr Macron, he will be no submissive underling; Mr Barnier has been a regular critic and once described the president’s exercise of power as “solitary and arrogant”. But he is also conveniently pro-European. He is well known enough abroad for his seriousness to help calm neighbours and financial markets, as well as French businesses. And at his age Mr Barnier is unlikely to have the next presidential election, in 2027, at the front of his mind.

Two big problems lie ahead, however. The first is that the left is up in arms. The four-party left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, is the biggest bloc in parliament, with 193 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. It has stuck together, and repeatedly insisted that it won in July. “The election has been stolen,” thundered Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of the radical-left Unsubmissive France, after Mr Barnier’s appointment. He is now calling for Mr Macron to be impeached. Mr Barnier, who should be able to count on the parliamentary support of 47 Republicans and most of the 166 centrists, could manage to get legislation passed without the left, so long as the RN does not oppose him, by no means a given. But the alliance will cause trouble for him nonetheless, in the assembly and on the streets. Mr Mélenchon has called for mass demonstrations on September 7th.

The other problem is the pressing need for France to get its public finances in order. Bruno Le Maire, the outgoing finance minister, conceded this week that the government budget deficit could reach 5.6% of GDP this year, well above the 5.1% originally forecast, not to mention the EU’s much-flouted limit of 3%. France is already under close supervision from the European Commission, according to what is known as the “excessive-deficit procedure”. Mr Le Maire argues that a further €16bn ($17.8bn) of savings need to be found for this year alone. The new government needs to present a budget for next year to parliament by October 1st.

In short, Mr Barnier will have his work cut out as he tries to form the “unifying government” Mr Macron has requested, make the necessary budget cuts, appease the left, keep the hard right quiet, calm the streets and hold firm against Mr Macron’s irrepressible tendency to interfere in all decision-making. Mr Barnier survived the Brexit negotiations. An Alpine skier from the Savoie region, he will now need as much tenacity and agility to get through the next few months without a fall.■

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