Israel’s strikes may be only the start of a new offensive in Gaza

FOR TWO months a fragile ceasefire has held in Gaza. But in the early hours of March 18th the uneasy peace ended abruptly as Israel launched a series of air strikes against Hamas, the Islamist movement that still controls much of the territory. Israel claimed the attacks were aimed at Hamas’s surviving military commanders and political leaders. But the timing, in the middle of the night and when the truce was officially still in place, meant that the targets were at home, with their families, in residential areas.

Since the truce came into effect on January 19th the scenes from Gaza have been of hundreds of thousands of people going back to their homes, a large proportion of which have been damaged or destroyed. The resumption of Israeli strikes have meant a return to harrowing footage of dead children and the wounded being rushed to the strip’s few remaining hospitals. Over 400 people, including many civilians, have been killed, according to unconfirmed reports from Hamas officials, adding to the toll of tens of thousands since the war began.

Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, gave Hamas’s “repeated refusal to release our hostages” and its “rejection” of proposals to extend the ceasefire as reasons for the renewed offensive. This is only partially true. Hamas did reject various proposals made in recent weeks by America’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to release some of the 59 hostages (over half of whom are now believed dead) who have been held in Gaza for 17 months, as part of an extension of the first stage of the ceasefire. But it is Israel that has breached the agreement it signed in January.

Under the original deal, brokered by Mr Witkoff alongside members of Joe Biden’s administration, after the first six weeks of the ceasefire a second phase would come into effect. That would include a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, an official end to the war and the return of all remaining hostages still alive. Both sides fulfilled the first phase: 30 live hostages and the bodies of eight more were released from Gaza; 1,900 Palestinian prisoners were freed from Israeli jails; and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) withdrew from most of the strip. But Israel’s negotiators did not show up for the start of talks in Qatar about the second stage. And when they did send a delegation to Cairo and Doha, it was with only a limited mandate to discuss an extension of the first stage.

Mr Netanyahu, under pressure from his hardline coalition partners, has refused to end the war while Hamas remains in power, despite this not being part of the original agreement. Instead, when the first phase ended on March 1st, Israel tried, through direct talks between America and Hamas, to put pressure on the Palestinian group to agree to another hostage release under similar terms, without making any progress to the next stage of the ceasefire.

The Americans initially insisted that Israel implement the second phase of the truce but they have come round, at least for now, to the Israeli position. Donald Trump has threatened Hamas with “all hell” if it refuses to release the remaining hostages. A White House spokesperson confirmed that America had been “consulted” by the Israelis before the latest attacks and reiterated Mr Trump’s warnings that Hamas would have “a price to pay” if it did not capitulate.

Israeli officials said its latest attacks were co-ordinated with the Americans to follow the aerial campaign launched by the United States on March 15th against the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis have repeatedly launched missiles and drones at Israel and at ships in the Red Sea since the start of the war in Gaza, in “solidarity” with the Palestinians. Israel claims these have been co-ordinated by Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force. With these strikes, on the Houthis and in Gaza, Israel and America want to prevent both groups from launching simultaneous attacks on Israel and ships. Israel has also carried out a number of strikes in recent days against Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia militia, in what one Israeli official described as “a warning not to join in” as it did in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks.

For now, Israel and America seem aligned. Israel is anxious to prove it has America’s backing to operate against its enemies. What happens next depends to a great extent on the response from Hamas. So far it has not retaliated, partly because most of its rocket-launchers have been destroyed by Israel. But if Hamas signals a willingness to accept even an interim extension to the ceasefire, the Americans may call time on Israel’s offensive.

But most of the Israeli cabinet and the new IDF chief of staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, favour a much longer ground campaign in Gaza, which would involve sending entire armoured divisions back into the strip, to root out the Hamas fighters who have re-established their strongholds there.

That would be devastating for the long-suffering people of Gaza. They would be displaced once again to miserable “humanitarian zones” on the Mediterranean coast while what little is left of their homes and the civilian infrastructure is pulverised. It would also mean a bitter dispute within Israel, where many have already accused the government of endangering the remaining hostages with this new operation.

The IDF has already told Gazans who live near the border to evacuate. So far there have been no significant movements of Israeli troops on the ground, though it is of course early days. Deploying the scale of forces envisaged in General Zamir’s war-plans, including tens of thousands of reservists who have yet to be called up, would take weeks.

Mr Netanyahu is keeping his options open. He needs to pass a budget by the end of the month: failure  would trigger early elections. To do that, he needs a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and that requires keeping his far-right allies happy by continuing the war. Once the budget is passed, he will have more room for political and diplomatic manoeuvering. But ultimately, he will need Mr Trump’s go-ahead before sending the bulk of Israeli troops back into Gaza. ■