For nearly a month both Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement that controls Gaza, have largely honoured the ceasefire agreement they reached on January 15th. Even though each side has accused the other of violating the agreement, Israeli forces have withdrawn from most parts of the war-ravaged strip. In return, each week Hamas has released small groups of hostages.
Then, on February 10th it said it would not release the next group as planned on February 15th, prompting Israel to threaten the resumption of “forceful warfare” unless Hamas relented. On February 13th Hamas said it would release another set of hostages after all. Even so, the ceasefire looks desperately fragile.
The back-and-forth reflects disagreement over the terms for the second stage of the ceasefire, set to begin in March. The conflict appears to have been exacerbated by the intervention of Donald Trump, America’s president, who has proposed removing all Palestinians from Gaza and transforming the rubble-strewn strip into a massive luxury resort.
The next stage of the ceasefire is supposed to include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the release of all hostages and talks on rebuilding the devastated strip. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, stood next to Mr Trump when he outlined his plan at a press conference in Washington last week. Mr Netanyahu has made it clear he will not accept an end to the war while Hamas still rules Gaza.
But the Hamas commanders who control the fate of the hostages have no intention of going anywhere. During the latest release of hostages on February 8th, they paraded the three men in front of a banner in Arabic, English and Hebrew saying “We are the day after”. The message was addressed to Mr Trump as much as to Israel.
Mr Trump wants the release of hostages to be speeded up from the original plan. “If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock...let hell break out,” he said after Hamas’s announcement. That bought time for Mr Netanyahu. It delighted the hard right in his government, who wanted a return to the fighting and “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians long before Mr Trump proposed it, and whom he has struggled to keep in his ruling coalition since the ceasefire began. But if Hamas relents, he may yet come under pressure from Mr Trump to stick with the ceasefire.
He is not the only leader in the region forced to navigate carefully around Mr Trump’s unexpected ideas. In Mr Trump’s telling, Jordan and Egypt are supposed to house uprooted Gazans. They oppose this, but know that angering him could result in losing American aid.
King Abdullah of Jordan was careful not to contradict Mr Trump while visiting Washington on February 11th. He said Jordan would accept 2,000 sick children from Gaza for medical treatment. Only after leaving did he post on social media that he had “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against” the Trump plan. Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s president, has postponed his trip to America. His foreign ministry said on February 11th that it was working on its own “comprehensive vision” to rebuild Gaza without removing the Gazans.
By all accounts, Mr Trump still desires a grand regional alliance between America, Saudi Arabia and Israel. That has become hard to imagine. The best hope is that Mr Trump’s threats help convince Hamas to continue releasing hostages, preserving the ceasefire. His unworkable plan for Gaza may spur much-needed thinking on how to actually solve Gazans’ woes. But for now, the president’s interventions have made things worse, not better. ■
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