Low chance of China-Russia military teamwork leading to direct attack on US: Rand report
The two countries’ coordination on use of nuclear weapons might also be overestimated as they had “significant cleavages” in using such a deterrence, the report said.
The authors of the report also suggested that the possibility of direct confrontation between the two powers and the US, either independently or as a coalition, remained low due to the likely cost, especially from China’s perspective.
Given that trying to sabotage Sino-Russia relations might be counterproductive, Washington should pursue “ever greater cooperation among its most important allies and partners”, they said.
“Efforts to break apart the Sino-Russian relationship are unlikely to succeed and may end up motivating both Russia and China to strengthen their ties,” the report said, adding the most effective way to counter the Russia-China strategic partnership was ensuring the health of the US’ own alliances.
China and Russia are consolidating their partnership despite pressure from the West over the Ukraine war and tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
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However, the Centre for Advanced Defence Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said Russia was seeking to buy older, Western-made machine tools from Chinese companies to make weapons.
Last year, the they conducted joint air force patrols over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, the sixth under the annual cooperation plan between the two militaries since 2019. The latest joint drill prompted South Korea and Japan to scramble aircraft.
The two also began joint naval drills in the East China Sea in 2022, the closest they have been held to the Taiwan Strait since the annual war games began more than a decade ago.