Reliable numbers on Trump v Harris are scarce for now

It was not just politicians and journalists who had to scramble to respond to President Joe Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the election. Pollsters also rushed to get the first reactions from voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 44% to 42%. The Economist’s polling partner, YouGov, found that Ms Harris still trailed by 41% to 44%, roughly in line with Mr Biden’s polling before he dropped out on July 21st.

Public opinion may be volatile in the short term, given the weight of news confronting voters. Together with the statistical variability of individual opinion polls, that means it may be some time before a clear view of the race emerges. Betting markets, which provide a subjective but rapid interpretation of events, now give Mr Trump a 56% chance of winning, according to an average by RealClearPolitics, an aggregator. This is down from 66% in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on July 13th—but up from 52% immediately before the presidential debate on June 27th, which proved so disastrous for Mr Biden.

The Economist hopes to resume its nationwide poll tracker next week, once enough polls featuring Ms Harris as the presumptive nominee have been published. Our presidential-election forecast, which at the time of his withdrawal gave Mr Biden a mere 17% chance of winning, relies on a greater volume of polling, including ones conducted in individual states. We aim to relaunch this forecast in early August. For now, hard as it may be for those on tenterhooks, readers should treat any single poll with a healthy dose of scepticism. ■

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