Joe Biden leaked Israel’s first plan to end the war in Gaza
The timing of Joe Biden’s speech on May 31st seemed deliberate. It was broadcast on Friday, shortly after sundown in Jerusalem. Israeli cabinet ministers from the religious right would be off their phones and unable to make public statements because the Sabbath had begun. The American president chose this moment to reveal an Israeli proposal to Hamas, the militant group, for what he described as “a road map to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages”.
Israel’s leaders did not approve the leak, but they knew it was coming. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, grudgingly admitted that the plan was of his government’s own making. It is Israel’s first official outline for ending the war in Gaza.
The proposal, which was sent to Hamas through its Qatari patrons, has three stages. The first would involve a six-week truce during which Israel would withdraw its forces from the main urban areas in Gaza and Hamas would free female, elderly and wounded hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Simultaneously, a second stage would begin with the two sides negotiating, through intermediaries, a longer-lasting ceasefire to include a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of male Israeli soldiers held by Hamas and of more Palestinian prisoners. The third step would involve the return of the bodies of dead hostages to Israel and the rolling out of an internationally funded programme to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
Despite Mr Biden’s enthusiasm, this is still merely a proposal for more talks. On the Israeli side only the war cabinet, which does not include most of Mr Netanyahu’s hardline allies, has endorsed it. Once the Sabbath silence was over, the leaders of the far-right parties in the prime minister’s coalition lost little time in rejecting the plan and warning the prime minister that they would leave his government, should it come to pass.
Mr Netanyahu was quick to insist that Mr Biden’s description of the proposal was “inaccurate” and that Israel was sticking to “the goals of the war, chief among them the elimination of Hamas”. It is hard to take much that Mr Netanyahu says at face value, but it is true that the second and third stages will be far harder to negotiate than Mr Biden has acknowledged.
Nevertheless, the details of the plan mark a shift. The number of hostages to be released in the first stage is not specified, perhaps because of fears that many are no longer alive. Israel has accepted that during the initial ceasefire Gazan civilians, including men, will be allowed to return to whatever remains of their homes throughout the strip. Even though Mr Netanyahu insists that the war will continue, the plan opens the possibility of negotiations intended to achieve a full ceasefire.
But for the proposal to become reality, a majority of Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet will have to agree to it, as will Hamas. It is far from clear that the prime minister is wedded to his own deal, but he may be coming around to it. The growing desperation of the hostages’ families has increased the pressure on him. Of the 124 hostages still in Gaza, 43 are presumed to be dead. The actual number is almost certainly higher and prospects for the rest are getting grimmer by the day. If a deal is not reached soon, few living hostages will be saved.
The consensus within the Israeli security establishment is that most of the military aims in Gaza have been achieved and a pause in the fighting to free the hostages should be the priority. A truce in Gaza could also lead to a ceasefire on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where the daily exchange of fire with Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia, has risen sharply in recent days. Meanwhile Mr Netanyahu has been invited to address a joint session of Congress in Washington. A ceasefire in Gaza, even a temporary one, would ensure a warmer reception there.
Hamas will have to agree, too. The group has yet to issue an official response. Its political leaders, who live outside Gaza and are under pressure from the regimes of Egypt and Qatar, are more open to the deal. However, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza who remains holed up somewhere underground, will have the final word. He is expected to demand explicit guarantees that Israel will accept a full ceasefire and must stop trying to find and kill him. It is hard to imagine this or any Israeli government agreeing to such a condition for the man who is held responsible for planning the atrocities of October 7th.
Moreover, Hamas may see advantages in continuing the war. The more wrecked Israel leaves Gaza, the less anyone but Hamas will want to rule it. And it reckons that Israel’s diplomatic position is steadily worsening in the Middle East and beyond. The country is in the dock in international courts. The costs of the war are rising, for Israel as well as Hamas.
Either way, Mr Netanyahu can expect his coalition to start falling apart in the coming weeks. If a deal with Hamas goes ahead, the far right will abandon ship. Even before that, the pragmatic wing in Israel’s government, led by Benny Gantz, may go. He said he would resign by June 8th unless Mr Netanyahu presented a detailed strategy, though he may extend his deadline to help push through a deal that he supports as the only way to rescue the hostages. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition are in uproar over an upcoming Supreme Court ruling that would force religious students to serve in the army.
It would be most convenient for Mr Netanyahu if Hamas rejected the proposal and shouldered the blame. If Hamas does accept it, he will have to decide with whom to side at home. For now, as ever, he is playing for time—the one thing the hostages and civilians in Gaza do not have. ■
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