Talk of war between Israel and Lebanon is growing
SUMMER wildfires are common in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. But war, not weather, brought them early this year. Rocket and drone attacks by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia militia, sparked wildfires that have burned more than 3,700 acres in northern Israel and the Golan Heights. In Lebanon, meanwhile, Israeli shelling set fire to forests near the border.
Israel and Hizbullah have kept up a low-intensity conflict since October, when the Lebanese group started firing rockets in support of Hamas in Gaza. Over recent weeks, however, that conflict has escalated. Since October The Economist has used a NASA satellite designed to detect forest fires and a machine-learning model to track war-related fires near the border. The model detected a spike of activity beginning in mid-May; on June 2nd it logged the worst day since late October (see chart).
It is not just the number of attacks that has increased. Hizbullah is also striking deeper into Israel. The group is making greater use of explosive drones, which are harder for Israel’s air defences to intercept. Israel is hitting more often around Sidon, the largest city in southern Lebanon.
Once again, the Israeli army is preparing for a bigger war. Ground troops would be tasked with creating a “security zone”, similar to the one Israel had in south Lebanon until 2000, to make it more difficult for Hizbullah to launch rockets at border communities. “We are prepared for very intense action in the north,” said Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, while visiting the region on June 5th.
Still, none of this means that all-out war is inevitable. Israel is war-weary and the fighting in Gaza persists. Its leaders worry about Hizbullah’s arsenal of medium-range missiles. An offensive in Lebanon would drive Hizbullah to fire them at central Israel; enough would probably get through to cause serious damage and a heavy psychological blow. “We can’t continue letting Hizbullah have thousands of fighters right up on our border, but there is no good timing to go to war with them,” as an Israeli security official puts it.
As for Lebanon, it cannot afford a war. This is the start of the vital tourism season, when more than 1m visitors (mostly Lebanese expats) will pump billions of dollars into an economy whose GDP has fallen by half since 2019. Most Lebanese, including many of Hizbullah’s supporters, do not want the fighting to escalate.
Diplomacy, not war, is the preferred outcome on both sides. Amos Hochstein, an adviser to Joe Biden, the American president, is promoting a three-stage plan for Lebanon. First, a ceasefire would allow displaced residents on both sides to return home. America would then offer economic incentives to Lebanon. Mr Hochstein ultimately hopes to persuade Lebanon and Israel to demarcate their land border, as they did their maritime boundary in 2022.
But it will be impossible for Hizbullah to accept a ceasefire until the Gaza war ends. It has lost more than 300 of its men fighting Israel, including a few senior commanders. Its campaign has brought extensive damage to southern Lebanon. It would be a humiliation to stop fighting before Israel implements a truce in Gaza.
Once it does, Lebanon may still be unable or unwilling to negotiate a border deal. Hizbullah did not block the maritime agreement in 2022. But that was meant to unlock oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean, where Israel had already found rich gas deposits and Lebanon hoped to follow suit. Demarcating the land border would offer fewer financial benefits.
Nor would it offer much peace of mind to 80,000 or so Israelis displaced from the north. Hizbullah’s elite fighters have already made a tactical retreat a few kilometres away from the border. Diplomacy could push them still farther away. But it would not guarantee the sort of lasting calm that many Israelis demand before they will return to their homes in the north. Even the best diplomatic outcome, Israeli officers warn, would be temporary; their dilemma will not go away. ■
Sign up to the Middle East Dispatch, a weekly newsletter that keeps you in the loop on a fascinating, complex and consequential part of the world.