Germany is thinking about bringing back conscription
“Kriegstüchtig” does not trip easily off the English tongue. Nor does it fall easily on German ears. Translated roughly as “war-ready”, it is a word deployed by Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, to describe his favoured destination for the long under-resourced Bundeswehr, or armed forces. Money is now pouring in, and Mr Pistorius is overhauling the Bundeswehr’s structures. But like many of its nato allies, Germany is struggling to find enough willing recruits. The minister is among many who want Germany to consider restoring conscription, suspended since 2011, to get the numbers up.
Under plans drawn up in 2018 Germany aims to boost the Bundeswehr to 203,000 troops by 2031, up from around 181,000 today. This is a fraction of the size of the men under arms during the cold war (see chart 1). But the army is ageing and shrinking: given attrition, it needs to recruit 25,000 soldiers a year just to stand still. And Germany’s drum-tight labour market makes it hard for the Bundeswehr to compete with other employers. The situation is “really dire”, says Johann Wadephul, an mp from the opposition Christian Democrats, who back a return to the draft.
Germany’s previous model of conscription, expensive and easy to dodge, is unlikely to return. Mr Pistorius instead says he has a “soft spot” for the approach in Sweden, under which 18-year-olds must answer a “mustering” questionnaire assessing their health, interest in the military and other matters. Last year over 4,000 were drafted despite saying they did not want to serve. So far the model has worked well, although the true test will come when the number of draftees increases, notes Robert Dalsjo, an analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency.
Whether Germany needs something similar is hotly contested. Mr Pistorius’s planners in the defence ministry are said to believe it does, not only to achieve the 2031 target but to bulk out the reserve force. Even if the numbers can be made up via voluntary means, the figure was established before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine inspired Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, to declare a “turning-point”, or Zeitenwende, in security policy.
Since then Germany has taken on extra commitments inside nato, including an ambitious pledge to station a permanent brigade in Lithuania. Demands are likely only to grow. Andreas Schwarz, an spd mp who sits on the Bundestag’s defence committee, says it would be “advisable” to rethink the 203,000 target. His view is widely shared inside the armed forces.
Others hope that by alerting youngsters to the idea of signing up (and offering incentives, such as help with education), simply sending the questionnaire to all 18-year-olds might do the job. Matthäus Gemmingen, a 23-year-old Bavarian, says he would probably have enlisted after leaving school had the idea presented itself; a friend who did says the discipline and training eased his passage to working life. Sara Nanni, the spokeswoman on defence for Green mps, agrees that the Bundeswehr is understaffed but calls mandatory conscription “old-fashioned tough talk”. She adds that it risks entrenching inequality, since obliging women to serve requires a cumbersome constitutional change.
There are other ways to beef up the numbers. In time, some reserves might be activated. Meanwhile Martin Elbe, a military sociologist, says the Bundeswehr should scrap its temporary-service model, under which most recruits serve for a maximum of 17 years, and often far fewer. Only one-third of Germany’s armed forces are permanent hires. Ms Nanni adds that sexism inside the Bundeswehr turns off potential female recruits. Just 13% of troops are women, and in recent years the number of young women to whom a military career appeals has plummeted (see chart 2).
Germany’s three-party coalition is divided on conscription, as on much else. A more serious split runs inside the ruling Social Democrats (spd), home to Messrs Scholz and Pistorius. The chancellor has repeated his view that a draft is unnecessary so insistently that it looks like a reproach to his defence minister, whose popularity stands in stark contrast to that of his troubled boss. Mr Pistorius is expected to make a formal proposal on June 12th. With tricky political negotiations ahead, he will probably not urge an immediate reintroduction of conscription.
That looks sensible, for now: Germany has neither the infrastructure nor money to take on tens of thousands of extra recruits. The deeper division may be over the purpose of conscription in the first place. To make Germany war-ready means not only building up the Bundeswehr but convincing Germans of the value of deterrence through strength in the face of Russian aggression. That is a way off. In the run-up to the European elections on June 9th, Germany’s streets are littered with spd posters advertising the party’s ability to “secure peace”—under a photo of Mr Scholz. ■
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