Who will be Wales’ next first minister? The runners and riders

LONDON — It’s a nation of 3 million people where Labour is riding a 101-year winning streak. Now the party is choosing a new leader in Wales — and Westminster will be watching closely.

Whoever replaces Mark Drakeford, who confirmed he will step down by March after five years as first minister, faces a tricky in-tray at the helm of the U.K. devolved nation.

Near the top is deciding how closely to follow U.K. Labour leader Keir Starmer — who polls predict will win a general election next year.

Drakeford has tacked more to the left than Starmer. His policy of widespread 20-miles-per-hour road speed limits has unsettled some Labour MPs and opened up a fierce line of Conservative attack.

With education and health policy devolved from Westminster to Wales — and their shaky performance scrutinized by Tory strategists — Wales is an early test of Labour’s relationship with the regions and nations to which it has promised more power.

The new leader must also manage the delicate balance of power in the Welsh parliament, the Senedd. Labour has only 30 of the 60 seats, but holds the post of first minister in a cooperation deal with nationalists Plaid Cymru.

Drakeford’s approval rating dropped to his lowest-ever 17 points in December polling by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, though Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in Wales was a healthy 25 points overall.

While Starmer paid tribute to Drakeford as a “true titan” of Welsh and Labour politics, Conservative Party chair Richard Holden said the party is “failing the Welsh people across the board.”

Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and Education Minister Jeremy Miles are broadly seen as early frontrunners to replace Drakeford by Welsh Labour MPs who spoke to POLITICO.

The pair, and Deputy Minister for Social Partnership Hannah Blythyn, have been “working the circuit” of Welsh party members for more than 18 months, said one MP. Health Minister Eluned Morgan has also often been tipped to run.

Enthusiasm is not brimming in Westminster, however. “It’s a mixed and not very exhilarating bag of people,” said a second Labour MP.

Labour’s ruling body in Wales was meeting on Wednesday night to begin setting the election timetable. Two people with knowledge of the process said candidates would likely need six Senedd members as backers, or fewer if they have support from local parties and affiliates.

Those who make the ballot would then face a one-member-one-vote election among Welsh Labour’s 18,000-odd members. A new leader would be put to the Senedd to confirm their position as first minister by late March.

No candidates have yet thrown their hats into the ring, but POLITICO has an early primer on the most likely runners and riders.

Vaughan Gething

The Zambia-born, Dorset-raised health minister, 49, wanted to be a cricketer, singer or lawyer growing up before the latter won out.

Runner-up for leadership in 2018, he joined Labour aged 17, and was the first black president of the Welsh National Union of Students and the youngest-ever president of the Wales Trades Union Congress at 34. 

Gething was health minister during the pandemic, when the Senedd’s move to video-call service Zoom was not without incident. (He forgot to turn off his microphone while complaining of a Labour colleague: “What the fuck is the matter with her?”)

His politics are seen by some MPs in Westminster as the closest to Starmer’s, albeit by a whisker. (Gething described left-wing ex-leader Jeremy Corbyn as “wrong, wrong, wrong” on Brexit.) 

Opinions are mixed. A third Labour MP described him as “competent but not popular.”

Jeremy Miles

Born near Swansea, the 52-year-old education minister studied at Oxford University before working as a solicitor in London at media firms including NBC. He has spoken of the struggle of growing up gay in rural South Wales. 

Miles came third in a no-hope bid to become MP for Beaconsfield in 2010, then moved back to Wales and set up a digital consultancy. 

He lost an MP selection race for safe Aberavon by one vote to the now-shadow minister Stephen Kinnock in 2014, then joined the Senedd two years later. 

A former member of Blairite group Progress (now Progressive Britain), Miles backed Starmer for leader but his politics are dissected by colleagues and rivals. Some argue he has positioned himself on the “soft” left to match Drakeford, while others say there is little difference between him and Gething. However, unlike Gething (who describes himself as a “learner”), Miles speaks Welsh.

Hannah Blythyn

The 44-year-old is the youngest and the only likely candidate from north Wales. 

Labour colleagues cast her as an outsider, but are also keen to see at least one woman — and North Walian — on the ballot. 

An ex-LGBT Labour co-chair, Blythyn became one of the first three openly gay Senedd members when elected in 2016, and has put forward plans to make it easier for transgender people to change their legal gender. Similar plans in Scotland were blocked by the U.K. government.

MPs view the former Unite union officer as more left-wing than her two male rivals. Reviews in Westminster are mixed; the first MP quoted above said she “works really hard,” while the third called her a “nightmare.”

Eluned Morgan

By far the most experienced politician of the four, the 56-year-old health minister was an MEP for 15 years, was handed a peerage in Westminster in 2011, and joined the Senedd in 2016. 

But she was fined £800, banned from driving and reprimanded by the Welsh parliament last year after clocking up four speeding offences. An investigation found she had shown a “disregard for the law.” 

She has also had the so-called hospital pass of overseeing Wales’ National Health Service since Gething moved to the economy brief in 2021. In March she survived a no-confidence vote over her handling of failings at the Betsi Cadwaladr health board, which runs services in north Wales.

It is not yet clear whether she would run for leader again after coming third last time.

Other names to watch

Some MPs mention Wales’ Counsel General Mick Antoniw as an outside chance, while Finance Minister Rebecca Evans has been touted in the past, but is said by colleagues not to be keen on a run.

Former long-serving minister Ken Skates is tipped by the North Wales Daily Post as an outside bet.